Every year, I get obsessed about the Oscars, from debating
the acting categories to following the Best Make-Up finalists to guess which
three of the seven finalists will get nominated. And every year, I defend my
geeking out over this overhyped annual festivity where people with little to no
self-esteem try to make themselves feel better by handing out the most coveted
of awards in their field: The Academy Award. Yes, I have no myths about what
these award shows have morphed into over the years, going from a simple dinner
event to being a massively produced show with musical numbers that make no
sense and montages that only the most devoted of fans would know why they have
merit. But, for all their pretense, I still love obsessing over the Oscars. I
get as into them as when people pull out March Madness brackets and think they
know who’s going to make the final four. I get as into them as fantasy football
people who obsessively monitor every single football game, even if they have no
emotional attachment to the teams playing. Why am I using so many sports
analogies, well, it’s because every guy has something to geek out about and for
me, it’s the Oscars.
But they don’t matter, they never award the right
movies/actors, why should you care? Well, that’s true, they don’t always get it
right. I mean, can anyone see The Artist aging well? I mean, it already felt
dated when you saw it the first time. It’s a pretty good movie, but I don’t
think it’s gonna bring back the trend of silent films. That’s why they
installed speakers in movies theaters. But it’s seeing what each year
represents. Like 1997, Titanic won everything because it was friggin’
everywhere. It was the highest grossing movie of all time, it clutched onto the
number one spot every weekend for 16 weeks, the Celine Dion theme song was
always on the radio, even the orchestral score was on the radio. And it was
also a costume drama, too, so, yeah, there was no way this was going to be
ignored come Oscar time, despite how much better L.A. Confidential, Good Will
Hunting and Boogie Nights have aged over
the years.
Like it or not, we will always expect the Oscars to vote for
what WE think are the best movies of the year. Hell, I haven’t agreed with a
single one of their winners since No Country for Old Men and I still run into
people that think that shouldn’t have won. But the Oscars don’t represent what
the best movies are of each year, they represent the year’s trends. Studying
what won and what was nominated makes as much sense as studying sports
statistics. Does it really matter that Felix Hernandez had a perfect game in
2012? Yeah, it matters in 2012, will we see it again? Probably not, lightning
strikes once and you just drink it in at the moment. Same with the Oscars, was
Gwenyth Paltrow the best actress of 2008? Hell no, all four of the women she
was up against had more range and complex roles than Paltrow did, but there was
no stopping the Harvey Weinstein Machine that was Shakespeare in Love in 1998.
But that win will forever cement her reputation as being in one of the most
regarded films of that year, so good for her, she got to ride the coattails.
So, do I care who will win Best Actor this year? Yeah, it’s
interesting, but does it matter in the long run? If Daniel Day-Lewis wins his
third Oscar it will, but for the most part, it probably won’t. But do I care
what is going to get nominated for Best Art Direction? Damn right, I do! Why do
I get so worked up about the technical categories? I guess I really care about
Art Direction along with every facet of filmmaking, so, that is why the Oscars
are something that I geek out about and will always geek out about. God help my
friends and family that have to listen to my rants for the next month. So, with
that pointless bit of arguing in mind, I present to you my predictions for the
top tier Oscar categories for this year.
Original
Screenplay
What gets nominated here could very well be the most
interesting race of the year as it doesn’t appear to have any clear front runners…and
what gets nominated is probably going to be really dull. In fact, if you look
at the screenplay nominees over the past six years, you couldn’t have asked for
a better group of nominees each year. For starters, we all can safely bet that Zero
Dark Thirty, Django Unchained and Moonrise Kingdom. Despite opening up too
early in the season, The Master has gained an impassioned following behind it,
securing a fourth Best Screenplay nomination for Paul Thomas Anderson. As for
the fifth nominee, that’s where it gets a little hazy. There are three movies
that have the best chances, the best of which is Michael Haneke’s Amour, a
pretentious piece of drivel that won the Cannes film festival award cementing
it’s fanbase among the pretentious cinephiles. I obviously was not a fan, but
if it’s one thing I’ve learned about predicting the Oscars, you have to take
your personal feelings out of the mix. That’s where I got burned last
year…stupid Tree of Life.
But where it gets really interesting are the other possible
nominees that could sneak in. Both Looper and Flight earned Writers Guild
nominations Looper gave a fresh twist to the time travelling genre while Flight
had an original story structure, using the spectacular plane crash in the
beginning of his film to open up the story of a character portrayal when a
lesser script would have used the crash as the third act or used corny
flashback structure. Even though I wasn’t a fan of the movie, I’m giving the
edge to Amour because of the passionate Haneke fans, but I wouldn’t be
surprised if either Flight or Looper snuck in. That would be about the only
exciting thing that’s going to happen in this category. So, are we going to get
any incendiary nominees like Pulp Fiction, American Beauty, Eternal Sunshine of
the Spotless Mind, Memento or Fargo? No, but we’re going to get a lot of
capable ones plus Quentin Tarantino’s always glimmering feast of dialog. So, if
these are the nominees, I’m behind Django. Otherwise, meh…
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
(Possible Upsets: Flight, Looper)
Adapted Screenplay
Now, this is a category that could be completely dominated
by Best Picture nominees, especially now that the Academy’s trying to be “exciting”
by having anywhere between five and ten nominees. (Out of curiosity, who
outside of me and people like me are excited about this rule or even find it
exciting?) That being said, we can cement nominations for Golden Globe and
Writers Guild nominees Argo, Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook. These were
perfect examples of excellently executed stories told with no wasted scenes
through breathless dialog. Also, expect to see Life of Pi in the running for,
as anyone can tell you that has read the book, adapted that story into a movie
would have seemed damn near impossible, yet it was pulled off flawlessly. So,
that leaves our fifth nominee? Will sentimental favorites The Perks of Being a
Wallflower and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel make it in? Will Skyfall pull a
sudden crest of support and get nominated here? My guess is summer indie
darling Beasts of the Southern Wild is going to have a strong presence this
year (see later on in the predictions) and will take the final slot.
If I were to get personal about it, I would definitely
nominate The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which should be required viewing for
anybody currently in high school, about to go into high school and have had to
endure the hell that was being an outcast in high school.
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
(Possible Upsets: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Perks of
Being a Wallflower, Skyfall)
Animated Film
Oh, Pixar, how you have fallen in the course of two years.
Now, I haven’t seen Brave and from what I’ve heard, it’s a really good film, so
expect it to get nominated. What I mean by that first sentence is that if this
were any other previous year for Pixar, we could pretty much already say that
would win (Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, Wall-E, Up, Toy Story 3
are 6 of the 11 winners of this category since it started in 2001.) Not only
that, but we’ve had a year of lackluster animated films that ranged from
dismissive entries (The Lorax) to sequels that only existed to generate
worldwide grosses (Madagascar 3, Ice Age 4). Brave will still get in and will
probably be the top contender against the one animated film that seemed to
connect with the nostalgic crowd as well as the animated fans: Wreck-It Ralph.
Stop-motion animation really underperformed this year, from
the blink and you missed it ParaNorman to the box office disaster that was
Frankenweenie. They were really well reviewed, but they didn’t connect with
mainstream audiences the way that Wallace and Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit
and Corpse Bride did back in 2005. Still, I don’t think that either of them can
be counted out, we might even see both get nominated if there are going to be
five nominees.
So, with the weak performance of animated films, I think
this category has the potential to be pretty avant garde this year, but are the
weird entries good enough to get nominated? Well, the other finalists are
Adventures in Zambezia, Delhi Safari, From Up on Poppy Hill, Hey Krishna, A
Liar’s Autobiography: The Untrue Story of Monty Python ‘s Graham Chapman, The
Mystical Laws, The Painting, The Rabbi’s Cat, Secret of the Wings, Walter &
Tandoor’s Christmas, Zarafa. Yeah, they haven’t been released locally in my
neighborhood, I know nothing about them and I wouldn’t be surprised if they got
nominated. At this point, I can only guess rather than predict. My guesses
would have to be:
Brave (1)
Frankenweenie (1)
The Painting (1)
The Rabbi’s Cat (1)
Wreck-It Ralph (1)
(Possible Upsets: Hotel Transylvania, ParaNorman Rise of the
Guardians, ???)
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway is going to win. Unless someone else wins the
Golden Globe or the Screen Actors Guild award, she is pretty much a give in. As
for her competition, they just have more going against them than for them.
While Helen Hunt has comeback kid all over her for her performance in The
Sessions, she’s already won before. A
nomination will be enough to say welcome back. That goes double for Sally
Field, while her performance in Lincoln was fantastic and probably her most
complex role, with two Oscars capped off with an already famous “You really
like me” acceptance speech. Maggie Smith
could get a nomination herself, but she’s already won way back in the day and
while her role was enjoyable, it wasn’t the type of role that typically gets
the win. If Nicole Kidman sneaks in, then not only does she have a previous
win, but she would be nominated for a film, The Paperboy, that wasn’t widely
seen or recognized. One person who has a chance, but no award is Amy Adams for
The Master. However, her role might be seen as too little in a male dominated
film. Judi Dench earned a Broadcast Film Critics nomination for her role in
Skyfall, but in order for her to get nominated, the voters have to recognize
Skyfall as more than just a genre film. And don’t count out loveable longshot,
Ann Dowd for the indie hit Compliance, playing the abused victim of a sick
phone prank. However, there may have been too few people that have seen the
movie. So, with those contenders in mind, these are my predictions.
Sally Field; Lincoln
Anne Hathaway; Les Miserables
Helen Hunt; The Sessions
Nicole Kidman; The Paperboy (1)
Maggie Smith; The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (1)
(Ann Dowd; Compliance, Amy Adams; The Master)
Supporting Actor
Now HERE’S a race that seems completely up for grabs. Four
people, maybe five, are previous winners and could take home another AND they
would all be from movies that could get nominated for Best Picture. Alan
Arkin’s performance as the Hollywood producer that helps to create the fake
movie production for the CIA might ring familiar with the voters, so he’s in,
especially for how well loved the movie is. DeNiro will get in for his role in
Silver Linings Playbook because of the devoted support the film has. While it
remains to be seen how much support The Master has, like the movie or hate it,
you can’t deny how fantastic of a job Hoffman did in his role, so he’s
instantly in. Tommy Lee Jones was arguably the most stand out of the supporting
performances in Lincoln or at least the most supported of all the supporting
cast members.
So, that leaves us with who’s gonna get the final slot.
Well, that’s easy, someone from Django Unchained, but the question is who?
Leonardo DiCaprio breaks out of his usual same type of roles and becomes a
slimy slave owner and could get recognized for taking a new chance. Christoph
Waltz is fantastic in another Tarantino role, but this time, he’s more charming
and likeable. But the real surprise came from Samuel L. Jackson who played the
racist house slave with that breaks all kinds of new grounds with his
performance. Any one of them could get in, but I’ll still give the edge to
DiCaprio, unless voters can look over the controversy of Jackson’s performance.
Unless all of the performances cancel each other out, then Javier Bardem could
sneak in for who is arguably the best Bond villain of all time.
Alan Arkin; Argo
Robert DeNiro; Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio; Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman; The Master
Tommy Lee Jones; Lincoln
(Javier Bardem; Skyfall, Christoph Waltz; Django Unchained)
Actress
No matter how talented or how nuanced the other actresses
this year are, this year’s race is gonna be between Jessica Chastain and
Jennifer Lawrence. After starring in this year’s third highest grossing film,
Jennifer Lawrence capped off the year nailing a strong role in Silver Linings
Playbook. Last year, Jessica Chastain made a name for herself by being in an
indie darling (Take Shelter), an art house film with a devoted fan base (The
Tree of Life) and getting a nomination for The Help. So, yeah, both of these
actresses have strong reasons to win this year. The SAG award will probably
make the winner more clear, but right now, it’s a two way race.
So, what about the other three nominees? Well, if support
for Beasts of the Southern Wild is large among the voters, then six year old
actress Quvenzhane Wallis could find herself the youngest nominee in this
category. That is if she can hold off other contenders, namely Naomi Watts in
The Impossible, who headlines a movie that is getting a big reputation for
being a movie that has made a lot of people cry. Oscar darling Helen Mirren is
getting a lot of nominations for her performance as Alfred Hitchcock’s wife
during the time he was making Psycho. While the movie is not getting good
reviews, Mirren is about the only aspect of the movie that comes out of it
unscathed. If Amour gets a huge crest into Best Picture, then the love for it
may be spread into other categories, namely for Emmanuelle Riva who plays the
tragic stroke victim. Then you have really loveable longshot Rachel Weisz in a
movie that wasn’t a huge hit and if it’s remembered, then it would be a
tremendous shock.
Jessica Chastain; Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence; Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren; Hitchcock (1)
Naomi Watts; The Impossible (1)
Quvenzhane Wallis; Beasts of the Southern Wild
(Emmanuelle Riva; Amour, Rachel Weisz; The Deep Blue Sea)
Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis. Get used to that name, he may just win his
third Oscar, only five years after winning his second. Why not, he breathed new
life into Abraham Lincoln, a character when portrayed by actors or in cartoons,
was beginning to become synonymous with the animatronic puppet at Disneyland.
His portrayal of Lincoln was dynamic while remaining grounded as an everyday
man. Yeah, this performance is going to be hard to beat. The only actors that
have a chance would be Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables. While the movie is not
doing well with the critics, Jackman could get recognition for his vocal
performances, which has happened before (Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago, Jennifer
Hudson for Dreamgirls) and he’s certainly become a well-liked actor since his
breakout in 2000. Another actor that might have a shot is newly minted leading
man Bradley Cooper and his performance in Silver Linings Playbook. Either
Jackman or Cooper might be able to ride a strong crest of support in their
field to win, but I’m not thinking that’s gonna happen.
The other two slots are going to be your standard, “Hey, we
really like your performance/you, though you have no chance at winning”. No
other actor embodies this moreso than John Hawkes and his performance in The
Sessions. The movie is one of those, see it for the performances, but only if
you’re die hard John Hawkes/Helen Hunt/William H. Macy fans. So, yeah, it’s not
gonna be a widely remembered film and those films never get awarded, so it’ll
be a grateful nomination. Now, the last slot is kind of up for grabs because
there’s a three way race. Joaquin Phoenix could get the final nomination if
support for The Master is as feverish as when it first opened. However, support
for it seems to have cooled over the weeks, plus some voters may remember
Phoenix’s tirade about how he hopes he doesn’t get nominated because “Oscars
mean nothing” to him. Don’t bite the hand, Commodus, because they will remember
that, regardless if you care or not. So, that could leave the final spot wide
open for Denzel Washington, who took on a very deep role with just the right
note. But I’m expecting a wild card slot, which this category has seen quite a
bit over the past couple years (Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,
Demian Bichir for A Simple Life and Javier Bardem for Biutiful) And this year,
they could nominate a man that has been acting for over thirty years and has
never received a nomination: Richard Gere. Yes, Gere has never been nominated
for an Oscar and with Armitrage, he finally got an intricate role that
showcased his talent as good as if not better than the best performances of his
career. So, while I’m not counting out Phoenix or Washington, I’m betting on a
surprise nomination for Gere.
Bradley Cooper; Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis; Lincoln
Richard Gere; Armitrage (1)
John Hawkes; The Sessions (2)
Hugh Jackman; Les Miserables
(Joaquin Phoenix; The Master, Denzel Washington; Flight)
Director
This is a category where it’s so crowded, it’s going to be
interesting to see who gets left out rather than nominated. I mean, you have
industry legends (Steven Spielberg for Lincoln, Quentin Tarantino for Django
Unchained and Ang Lee for Life of Pi) people who have found revitalized bumps
in their careers with recent awards darlings (Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark
Thirty, Tom Hooper for Les Miserables and David O. Russell for Silver Linings
Playbook) and Ben Affleck for Argo, who found a new redemption for his career
not just in front of the camera, but moreso behind the camera. And let’s not
forget Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master, Michael Haneke for Amour and dark
horse candidate Sam Mendes for Skyfall.
Well, Steven Spielberg, Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck are
pretty much cemented nominees. Their movies are getting the highest praises of
their respective careers and their talent behind the camera is completely on
display with their movies. Plus, I think they’re the top three contenders to
win Best Picture this year, but that’s for the final category. If I had to pic
who was going to be the one that would be the runner up from those three, the
one director whose effort was admired and appreciated, but didn’t have as good
as a chance as the other three, it would be Ang Lee for Life of Pi. This is a
movie that is getting worldwide love, it’s doing incredible business overseas,
it’s been getting rave reviews, it’s even rapidly approaching the $100 million
mark domestically, so it is really touching a place in a lot of people’s
hearts. So yeah, Lee is in.
So who is going to be the one that gets left out? Well,
let’s look at the other potential candidates. Tom Hooper was considered the top
contender for this award back before Les Miserables was reviewed by critics.
Now, he’s lucky that he got a Director’s Guild nomination (along with the other
four I just previously mentioned: Affleck, Bigelow, Lee & Spielberg), but
he’s still the weakest link for the fifth nomination, but his DGA nomination
still keeps him in the running. Quentin Tarantino earned a Golden Globe
nomination for Django Unchained and could take Hooper’s place for the fifth
nomination, but will the Academy go that risqué? That leaves the other person
that could pick up the spot if Hooper and Tarantino cancel each other out:
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. He’s got the Weinstein machine
behind him and Silver Linings Playbook has a very devoted fanbase. I’ll still
give the edge to Tarantino since his movie is the freshest, but I’m not
counting out Russell or Hooper.
Now let the battle begin!
Ben Affleck; Argo
Kathryn Bigelow; Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee; Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg; Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino; Django Unchained
(Tom Hooper; Les Miserables, David O. Russell; Silver
Linings Playbook)
Picture
Do I know what the 5 (6,7,8,9,10) nominees are going to be?
Well, I don’t know what the final number’s gonna be, but I can tell you who has
the strongest chances of this year. Like I said before, Argo, Lincoln and Zero
Dark Thirty are the top three contenders and if one or neither make the Best
Picture list this year, then I have no idea what is going to happen this year.
The Academy will have just plunged into complete anarchy. Which I would be very
entertained to watch. As for the other candidates, Life of Pi still has their
devoted fanbase as does Silver Linings Playbook, so they will get nominated
also.
There you go, there’s five nominees and in any year before
the Dark Knight/Wall-E Injustice Year of 2008, that would have been the end of
the list, but no, they decided that the best way to keep the public interested
is to expand the list of nominees. Well, that could work, but I personally
think that just gives the Academy more of an excuse to nominate other obscure
movies that nobody has heard of or would care about. Seriously, have you been
out with any of your friends where they said, “You know what, The Tree of Life
sounds like a great way to pass the evening.” Maybe if your friends are
nature-loving potheads that would happen. So get ready for a bunch of indie
films. Avant Garde pedigree Anderson filmmakers Wes and Paul Thomas may find
their latest opuses in the running (Moonrise Kingdom and The Master
respectively), so could this year’s little indie film that could Beasts of the
Southern Wild. Also, don’t count out Michael Haneke’s Amour, which has a very
devoted and loyal fanbase, the kind that are so loyal, they don’t think
anything else came out this year.
But wait, there might be some mainstream hope with two films
that opened this past Christmas. Quentin Tarantino tackled the very tough
sensitive setting of pre-Civil War slavery and weaved a satisfying revenge
story around it. It’s been getting a lot of support and some solid reviews
(despite what Spike Lee says about it), so it could find itself in the running.
So could the very genre that older Academy voters love to nominate and if it’s
one thing the past two Best Picture winners have taught us, it’s that the
Academy loves nostalgia for eras past. With that in mind, the lavishly produced
big budget musical Les Miserables could find itself in the running, but it
isn’t quite the juggernaut that it was expected to be this time last month.
And there’s still another very VERY dark horse in Skyfall,
the movie that defied all expectations by getting some of the most solid
reviews of any movie this year, earning an all-time franchise high at $1
billion and being a gigantic crowd pleaser. While Academy voters aren’t as
likely to nominate genre based films (again, see the Dark Knight/Wall-E
Injustice year of 2008), their latest move in announcing there would be a 50
year tribute to James Bond shows that the Academy recognizes the impact Bond
films have had on culture, both film-going and every day.
Argo (6)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (3)
Django Unchained (9)
Les Miserables (9)
Life of Pi (7)
Lincoln (12)
The Master (4)
Moonrise Kingdom (2)
Silver Linings Playbook (5)
Zero Dark Thirty (7)
(Amour, Skyfall)
So, I am psyched for Thursday morning! I will watch to see
what the nominees are with heavily baited breath. Can’t be as excited as me? I
don’t blame you, but hopefully my enthusiasm will be infectious enough to keep
you curious along with me.
