Best Supporting Actress: If any acting category is pretty much a give-in, it's Best Supporting Actress. Why? Well, let's look at the competition. The person who has the least chance of winning that I can see is Janet McTeer, who was kind of a wild fifth place card for the nominations for Best Supporting Actress (her slot could have been taken by newcomer Shailene Woodley from The Descendants, who probably lost out because it was her first film). Jessica Chastin, who had a very fantastic debut this year, was nominated for a very thankless role in The Help (who's co-star we'll get to later), so if she wins, it'll only be for her year rather than this film. Berenice Bejo could sneak in with a late surge for The Artist, but even her role could still wind up has merely appreciated moreso than being awarded.
Which brings us to our top two contenders. While Melissa McCarthy is coming off a whirlwind year of her Emmy win and a stand out role in the surprise summer hit Bridesmaids. She has a massive amount of support going her way, but the person and movie who has more support going her way is the lead contender: Octavia Spencer. The Help has massive support behind it and Spencer is also getting really big support along with the film. She's also won the Broadcast Film Critics Award, the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild Award, a trifecta that pretty much ensures you'll win the award. So this one goes to Spencer, unless Bejo or McCarthy pull off a surprise upset, but that's not very likely.
My Prediction: Octavia Spencer
Runner-Up: Melissa McCarthy
My Personal Vote: Berenice Bejo
Best Supporting Actor: For the entire season, this award was pretty much a shoe-in for Christopher Plummer until the nominations came out and the name Max von Sydow came up and then speculation began as to which lifetime achievement award would be awarded. Nick Nolte will have to settle for his nomination being his only award as this was Warrior's only nomination. Ditto Jonah Hill who managed to ride the support for Moneyball all the way to a nomination. However, trailers for 21 Jump Street and recent memories of The Sitter will keep Hill from winning. Kenneth Branagh is the person who would probably benefit the most from a split between the top two contenders, but that may not be very likely.
So that comes down to the top two candidates. As I was saying before, this season, it was pretty much assured that Christopher Plummer would win, who, like Octavia Spencer, won the Broadcast Film Critics, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards. That is, until, the original top contender, Max von Sydow, managed to get back into a race that he seemed all but out of and score the only other nomination for surprise Best Picture nominee Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Now, an unexpected win for Sydow seems all the more likely, but Plummer still has the edge right now.
My Prediction: Christopher Plummer
Runner-Up: Max von Sydow
My Personal Vote: Christopher Plummer
Best Actress: Now this is one race that is completely up in the air and all nominees have great reasons to win. For starters, Glenn Close, who earned her first nomination since 1988 and her sixth nomination has yet to win, but her movie doesn't quite have the support as the films of her competition, so she'll have to settle for the fact that she got another nomination in. Rooney Mara pulled off an upset nomination that many thought was going to Tilda Swinton, but with a lack of other top tier nominations for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, her award will simply be being the newcomer in this category.
Then comes our three way race. Michelle Williams was considered a top contender for a while, but the movie didn't take off enough to make her a top contender and the race will probably come down to our two competitors. Will Streep win her first Oscar since 1982 or will Viola Davis get bestowed the love from The Help? In this race, it seems like Davis has this one locked up. While Streep delivered a fantastic performance, the movie wasn't highly embraced enough the way that Julie and Julia was two years ago. Inversely, The Help has a ton of support behind it and a LOT of love for it's cast, including Davis. Also, The Help is the only Best Picture nominee in this group and those typically win over non-Best Picture nominees. And it's Davis for the win, followed by Streep.
My Prediction: Viola Davis
Runner-Up: Meryl Streep
My Personal Vote: Michelle Williams
Best Actor: Now here's where it gets murky. Demian Bichir is just lucky to be here after scoring a surprise nomination from the Screen Actors Guild that carried over here. Gary Oldman got nominated because of the Academy realizing "crap, he's been acting for almost thirty years and we haven't nominated him yet". So his nomination is more of a career nomination than a performance nomination (in a very well loved movie). So that leaves us with our top candidates.
Brad Pitt delivered a very complex and subtle performance in Moneyball, but complex and subtle doesn't get recognized by the Academy. On the other hand, the top contender for the early part of the race was George Clooney, who did have a show-y performance in a very well loved Best Picture nominee. And a couple of months ago, he was pretty much expected to win. Then came the one-two punch of the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy Awards awarding Jean Dujardin Best Actor and now with an expected sweep for The Artist, Dujardin seems the most likely to win. If Clooney pulls this one off, then it would be a miracle at this point.
My Prediction: Jean Dujardin
Runner-Up: George Clooney
My Personal Vote: Brad Pitt
Best Director: This is a very interesting category, but will essentially come down to only front runner. Terrence Malick pulled out the surprise fifth nomination as his very dedicated fanbase helped get him in. However, that fanbase is really small and will have to settle for only a nomination. Alexander Payne was a shoe in for a nomination, but he may also have to settle for a nomination as well, since the movie is more being considered a triumph of it's screenplay. Woody Allen has a lot going for him with his sentimental film Midnight in Paris and, should he win the Oscar, would be his first win in 34 years as Best Director. However, the film isn't making as much waves as other movies and it will take a lot for him to win.
That leaves our top two candidates. Fresh from his win five years ago, Martin Scorsese has directed the movie with the most nominations this year. Typically, that would mean it would be a shoe in for Best Picture, but as he learned with The Aviator, that's not always the case if there's a more well loved film that year. This year, there is with The Artist and with Michael Hazanavicius winning the Broadcast Film Critics Award, the Directors Guild Award and the British Film Academy's award for Best Director, he pretty much has this one locked up. If Hugo is going to pull off an upset, then this would be the category where it would be the most clear.
My Prediction: Michael Hazanivicius
Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese
My Personal Vote: Martin Scorsese
Best Picture: And it all comes down to this award. So, let's go through the films that have the least chance of winning. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is extremely outgunned and incredibly implausible to win as it was a surprise nominee after being all but counted out this season. In any other year about twenty years ago, War Horse would have been a shoe in (no pun intended), but with a lack of any acting, directing or screenplay nominations, it's pretty much lucky that it's even included in with this list. Inversely, while The Tree of Life scored nominations for Director and Cinematography in addition to it's Best Picture status, the Malick fanbase doesn't stretch very far and there are actually more detractors than fans of his work, so it's also lucky it's being included in this list.
Now we come to the middle of the road movies, which are films that are well loved, but don't have much chance of winning in competition with the other top competitors. Midnight in Paris was a welcome return to form for Woody Allen and became his most profitable film. Personally, I was never a fan of Woody Allen, but that may have been in part of me seeing too much of his pretentious 1980s and early 2000s movies, which are a chore to sit through. Paris, however, I really adored. We then come to Moneyball, which is also a really well loved movie and scored all of the right nominations to put it in contention to win. However, in this race, it seems to have had to settle for nomination status across the board and it will probably have to do so here. The Descendants has all of the right nominations also, but such a quiet and understated movie without any real showboating normally stays a nomination. Then comes probably the most profitable and most recognized movie among the nominees: The Help. This was a movie that, for a while, had predictors thinking about Crash's surprise win back in 2005. And for a while, it seemed like it was heading that way. But when the nominations came out, it missed out on some crucial nominations to make it a top contender (Director, Screenplay and anything technical). Also, without large critical support, the movie is pretty much left without support outside of it's nomination.
And that brings us to our two way battle for Best Picture this year. While Hugo earned the most nominations this year, it has one thing going against it: no acting nominations. While that didn't hurt Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire, it doesn't quite have the prestige and sweeping precursor award wins that King and Slumdog had. In actuality, The Artist does. The Artist has pretty much won everything under the sun: Broadcast Film Critics, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild, British Academy Awards. Essentially, everything is lined up for The Artist to win and unless a last minute push for Hugo can come in (which won't happen because the Academy typically hates family movies), your winner is The Artist.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Sunday, February 19, 2012
84th Academy Award Winner Predictions (Second Tier Categories)
Best Score: Again, the award is going to come down to the two top competitors: The Artist and Hugo. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is much to subtle to be recognized and the two John Williams scores (The Adventures of Tintin and War Horse) will cancel each other out. Howard Shore has already won twice (for both Fellowship of the Ring and The Return of the King) and the most likely Best Picture winner will win here. If Hugo wins in this category, then things may be shaken up for Best Picture, but since that doesn't seem likely, Ludovic Bource's consistent silent film score (even the part that utilized Bernard Hermann's score from Vertigo) will be the likely winner.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Song: Well, this year, the Academy's music branch's ever-changing rules has left us with only two nominees, so it comes down to which song is utilized the best and which movie the academy likes more. While the bigger hit of the two was Rio, it's not the most loved movie of the two. That would be The Muppets, which also utilizes the song the best. While Rio's song Real in Rio is merely a bookend number, Man or Muppet was strongly utilized at the end of the second act as a very emotional and very tongue in cheek piece. It works on two levels as being both humorous and poignant, something Real in Rio is not. So, the winner is The Muppets.
My Prediction: "Man or Muppet"
Runner-Up: (Do I seriously have to type it in?)
My Personal Vote: "Man or Muppet"
Best Original Screenplay: Starting with the two weakest, Margin Call is out, despite being a cleverly written script with a timely storyline, it's too independent and it only has this one nomination. Inversely, Bridesmaids will also be out as well, being considered too commercial and too...comedic. So that leaves the other three. A Separation will more than likely take the Best Foreign Language Film category, so this nomination is merely recognizing how great the story was. So that leaves the other two: Midnight in Paris and The Artist. So, it will be a battle of the dialog versus the battle of the images. This is definitely going to be a tough one to call as it could be a choice between giving Woody Allen his first Oscar in twenty five years or continuing the sweep for The Artist. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that The Artist is going to win by a slight margin, but don't count out Midnight in Paris.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Midnight in Paris
My Personal Vote: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: This is going to be an interesting category to watch as I'm not counting out four of the five nominees here. The one that I am counting out is The Ides of March as it is the film's only nomination and a very good indication that it's not going to win. While some people could count out Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, I had just learned that one of the writers on this film just recently passed away, so there could be some sympathy votes there. If the Academy decides to stick to their two or one writer-written screenplay awards, then Hugo could win out, but the film isn't so much seen as a triumph of it's screenplay as much as it is a triumph of the director's vision. If Hugo wins here, then look for a stronger showing Oscar night. However, the two nominees that are more likely to win are The Descendants and Moneyball. While Moneyball's script was whip-smart and incredibly well crafted, the love for The Descendants may win out here.
My Prediction: The Descendants
Runner-Up: Moneyball
My Personal Vote: Moneyball
Best Animated Film: This one really is an easy one to call. The obscure foreign nominees, Chico & Rita and A Cat in Paris, will cancel each other out as well the too slight American nominees, Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots. That really leaves the only other nominee: Rango. Had the Academy decided to get with the times and nominate The Adventures of Tintin, then it might have been a race. But they didn't so it isn't.
My Prediction: Rango
Runner-Up: None, really.
My Personal Vote: Rango
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Song: Well, this year, the Academy's music branch's ever-changing rules has left us with only two nominees, so it comes down to which song is utilized the best and which movie the academy likes more. While the bigger hit of the two was Rio, it's not the most loved movie of the two. That would be The Muppets, which also utilizes the song the best. While Rio's song Real in Rio is merely a bookend number, Man or Muppet was strongly utilized at the end of the second act as a very emotional and very tongue in cheek piece. It works on two levels as being both humorous and poignant, something Real in Rio is not. So, the winner is The Muppets.
My Prediction: "Man or Muppet"
Runner-Up: (Do I seriously have to type it in?)
My Personal Vote: "Man or Muppet"
Best Original Screenplay: Starting with the two weakest, Margin Call is out, despite being a cleverly written script with a timely storyline, it's too independent and it only has this one nomination. Inversely, Bridesmaids will also be out as well, being considered too commercial and too...comedic. So that leaves the other three. A Separation will more than likely take the Best Foreign Language Film category, so this nomination is merely recognizing how great the story was. So that leaves the other two: Midnight in Paris and The Artist. So, it will be a battle of the dialog versus the battle of the images. This is definitely going to be a tough one to call as it could be a choice between giving Woody Allen his first Oscar in twenty five years or continuing the sweep for The Artist. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that The Artist is going to win by a slight margin, but don't count out Midnight in Paris.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Midnight in Paris
My Personal Vote: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: This is going to be an interesting category to watch as I'm not counting out four of the five nominees here. The one that I am counting out is The Ides of March as it is the film's only nomination and a very good indication that it's not going to win. While some people could count out Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, I had just learned that one of the writers on this film just recently passed away, so there could be some sympathy votes there. If the Academy decides to stick to their two or one writer-written screenplay awards, then Hugo could win out, but the film isn't so much seen as a triumph of it's screenplay as much as it is a triumph of the director's vision. If Hugo wins here, then look for a stronger showing Oscar night. However, the two nominees that are more likely to win are The Descendants and Moneyball. While Moneyball's script was whip-smart and incredibly well crafted, the love for The Descendants may win out here.
My Prediction: The Descendants
Runner-Up: Moneyball
My Personal Vote: Moneyball
Best Animated Film: This one really is an easy one to call. The obscure foreign nominees, Chico & Rita and A Cat in Paris, will cancel each other out as well the too slight American nominees, Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots. That really leaves the only other nominee: Rango. Had the Academy decided to get with the times and nominate The Adventures of Tintin, then it might have been a race. But they didn't so it isn't.
My Prediction: Rango
Runner-Up: None, really.
My Personal Vote: Rango
84th Academy Award Winner Predictions (Technical Categories)
Okay, so maybe doing them one category at a time was a bit too ambitious, so here I go with the other nominees:
Best Visual Effects: The giant fighting robots will cancel each other out (Real Steel and Transformers 3), so that leaves us with a very interesting three way race. Now, brace yourself fanboys and fangirls, Harry Potter has never won an Oscar. Ever, so this may be the last chance they have to award Harry Potter for anything. However, it's streak for getting nominated for Visual Effects is pretty nil as only three of the eight movies were ever nominated for visual effects and the last two were probably due to the fact that the nominees were increased to five instead of three. So it may not be the best loved among the Visual Effects community. What is the most loved visual effects movie within the community is Rise of the Planet of the Apes, with it's spectacular motion capture work and daunting task of near realism interacting with the real world. However, it is the only nomination for this movie, which doesn't bode well. Within the past thirty years, only three movies have ever taken home Best Visual Effects when that was the only award they were up for (not counting the Special Achievement in Visual Effects awards). So what about the final nominee, Hugo? Well, the effects were impressive, but they weren't landmark the way that movies like Avatar or The Matrix were, but what Hugo does have going for it is Best Picture pedigree. You'd have to go all the way back to 1970 to find the last time a Best Picture nominee lost Best Visual Effects, so Hugo may have that going for it. Still, based on the trend that the most technical of the films usually wins out, I'm giving the edge to Rise of the Planet of the Apes.
My Prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Runner-Up: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
My Personal Choice: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Make-Up: Now this is one that it's simply a two way race for me. Albert Nobbs may have created a couple of interesting looking characters, but the work on them would be too slight to consider. Now, at first, I thought Harry Potter had this one locked up, being the best chance the movie has at winning it's first Oscar and also for the heavy prosthetic work done on the supporting cast members. This is also the first in the series to be nominated for this category, so that could also be indicative of a win. Then I saw The Iron Lady and realized that they aged Margaret Thatcher. If it's one thing the Academy loves, it's old age make-up, but only if it's pulled off well (Curious Case of Benjamin Button, La Vie en Rose, Frida). And there are a lot of scenes of old Margaret Thatcher, which means a lot of close-ups, so there was no room for the make-up to be unconvincing at any time. And it wasn't, so I left thinking that this could potentially pull off an upset. Still, I think the Academy's going to let prosthetic work win out over aging work. They tend to like out there creative work and Harry Potter is the one film that has that. So I think it's Harry for the win, but watch out for The Iron Lady, which could pull off an upset.
My Prediction: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Runner-Up: The Iron Lady
My Personal Choice: The Iron Lady
Best Sound Mixing: Real quick, this has nothing to do with the quality of the sound design, it has to do with how well the dialog/music/effects/ambiance/levels are blended together to create an overall effect for the film. That being said, how does Michael Bay's consistent noise fests keep getting nominated when all I hear is yelling and noise? So, Transformers is out, ditto Moneyball because it's a little too slight of a job. Whipfast dialog mixing normally doesn't win out here, just get nominated to show that they're "appreciative". David Fincher seems to be the go to guy for creating great sound movies (his last two films were nominated in this category also), but with no real show-offy sound moments outside of some great rifle echoes, this one may be left in the cold (much like the setting). So that leaves us with our top two contenders. War Horse is the obvious choice here because of the war sequences, which typically win this award. However, there may be an incredible surge of support for Hugo to perform a mini-technical category sweep, so it could win here. Top that off with a fresh win from the Cinema Audio Society and you have your winner in this category.
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner Up: War Horse
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: Now this is the category that awards the cleverness of the sound design of the film. Again, I'll start by kicking Michael Bay off the list (as should most Academy voters when it comes to nominating movies) because most if not all of the sound effects have been utilized by the past two films. Nothing new, no award. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo's sound effects were probably too subtle to be recognized here also, so that may work against it also. Drive had some incredible sound design, but seeing as how this was the movie's only category (why, Academy, why?), it probably won't win here. So, again, it comes down to War Horse versus Hugo. Now, this is where it starts to get tricky because in the past six years, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing have gone to the same movie 4 out of 6 times (Slumdog Millionaire was destined to sweep all of it's awards and you can't compete against a musical for Sound Mixing, so Dreamgirls was gonna win anyway). So, if Hugo wins here, expect it to win for Sound Mixing, but if War Horse wins here, expect that to win Sound Mixing.
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner Up: War Horse
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Film Editing: Now, this is where it starts to get murky. If The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo were nominated for Best Picture, I'd say that it had a strong chance to win here, but since it didn't, it's at the bottom of the list, next to The Descendants. Moneyball's editing was pretty technical, weaving between historical footage of older baseball games and multiple locations within scenes and pulling off the overall dramatic effect, but since it doesn't seem to be getting much buzz for a win here, it will probably have to settle for it's nomination also. So that leaves us with the top competitors for Best Picture: Hugo and The Artist. Now, That Artist had some clever old fashioned editing techniques blended with new styles, but don't count out the Academy's love for three time Oscar winner Thelma Schoonmacher, who, incidentally, won for three Martin Scorsese movies. With this movie, not only did she have the powerful blend of Scorsese's images, but she also wove in and out of old fashioned films and Hugo itself. I'm gonna give the slight edge to Hugo here, but I wouldn't be surprised by a sweep by The Artist. (Harvey Weinstein always has a way of buying out awards.)
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner-Up: The Artist
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Cinematography: This is one category that, for one reason or another, I can't be unhappy if any of them win. The Artist had clever black and white cinematography, but you'd have to go all the way back to Schindler's List for the last black and white film that won cinematography, so that's instantly out. Ditto The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, even though the bleak landscape of Sweden looked amazing and the muted palates were very well done. War Horse had some absolutely beautiful photography work in nearly every frame of the movie. Even the bleak battlefield scenes had some beautiful lighting and camera work to it, but it'll have to probably settle for third. While the amazing camera/color work of Hugo would seem like a likely winner, I'm giving the edge to The Tree of Life. Yes, I know, I hate Terrence Malick and all of his pretentious over-symbolism and dehumanized storytelling, but the camera work is spectacular, more than this movie deserves, actually. Still, I won't have a problem with Emmanuel Lubezki winning his first Cinematography award. He was previously nominated for A Little Princess, Sleepy Hollow, Snow Falling on Cedars, The New World and Children of Men, so I'm completely fine with him winning.
My Prediction: The Tree of Life
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Costume Design: Haven't seen these nominees? Don't worry, neither has anyone else. The Madonna-directed box office disaster W.E. is completely out, as this was a time period covered in last year's The King's Speech (hell, it's pretty much the story of the other side of the family). The other two more elaborate movies (Anonymous & Jane Eyre) may not be as likely to win as they have been the past couple years, as their lack of nominations in other categories could indicate that they aren't as well loved. So that leaves us (again) with the two top Best Picture contenders: The Artist and Hugo. Hugo's Sandy Powell already has three Oscars and that may be enough, so they may go with The Artist here, though black and white films are even less likely to win. I'll give the edge to The Artist here as it's the most liked of the nominees, though I wouldn't rule out Hugo in this category yet.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Anonymous
Best Art Direction: This is always my favorite category because it awards the design of the look of the film's location and setting, which can range from period to fantasy. While Midnight in Paris and War Horse are both Best Picture nominees, their set designs weren't as elaborate as the winners of previous films, so I'm not expecting them to win here. Harry Potter is nominated for the fourth time in this category, but with it in competition with four other Best Picture nominees, the likelihood of it winning is pretty nil. So that leaves us with The Artist and Hugo. While The Artist had great looking 1920s houses, Hugo gave us a magnificent train station and the inner workings inside. So that is your winner, Hugo.
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner-Up: The Artist
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Visual Effects: The giant fighting robots will cancel each other out (Real Steel and Transformers 3), so that leaves us with a very interesting three way race. Now, brace yourself fanboys and fangirls, Harry Potter has never won an Oscar. Ever, so this may be the last chance they have to award Harry Potter for anything. However, it's streak for getting nominated for Visual Effects is pretty nil as only three of the eight movies were ever nominated for visual effects and the last two were probably due to the fact that the nominees were increased to five instead of three. So it may not be the best loved among the Visual Effects community. What is the most loved visual effects movie within the community is Rise of the Planet of the Apes, with it's spectacular motion capture work and daunting task of near realism interacting with the real world. However, it is the only nomination for this movie, which doesn't bode well. Within the past thirty years, only three movies have ever taken home Best Visual Effects when that was the only award they were up for (not counting the Special Achievement in Visual Effects awards). So what about the final nominee, Hugo? Well, the effects were impressive, but they weren't landmark the way that movies like Avatar or The Matrix were, but what Hugo does have going for it is Best Picture pedigree. You'd have to go all the way back to 1970 to find the last time a Best Picture nominee lost Best Visual Effects, so Hugo may have that going for it. Still, based on the trend that the most technical of the films usually wins out, I'm giving the edge to Rise of the Planet of the Apes.
My Prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Runner-Up: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
My Personal Choice: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Make-Up: Now this is one that it's simply a two way race for me. Albert Nobbs may have created a couple of interesting looking characters, but the work on them would be too slight to consider. Now, at first, I thought Harry Potter had this one locked up, being the best chance the movie has at winning it's first Oscar and also for the heavy prosthetic work done on the supporting cast members. This is also the first in the series to be nominated for this category, so that could also be indicative of a win. Then I saw The Iron Lady and realized that they aged Margaret Thatcher. If it's one thing the Academy loves, it's old age make-up, but only if it's pulled off well (Curious Case of Benjamin Button, La Vie en Rose, Frida). And there are a lot of scenes of old Margaret Thatcher, which means a lot of close-ups, so there was no room for the make-up to be unconvincing at any time. And it wasn't, so I left thinking that this could potentially pull off an upset. Still, I think the Academy's going to let prosthetic work win out over aging work. They tend to like out there creative work and Harry Potter is the one film that has that. So I think it's Harry for the win, but watch out for The Iron Lady, which could pull off an upset.
My Prediction: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Runner-Up: The Iron Lady
My Personal Choice: The Iron Lady
Best Sound Mixing: Real quick, this has nothing to do with the quality of the sound design, it has to do with how well the dialog/music/effects/ambiance/levels are blended together to create an overall effect for the film. That being said, how does Michael Bay's consistent noise fests keep getting nominated when all I hear is yelling and noise? So, Transformers is out, ditto Moneyball because it's a little too slight of a job. Whipfast dialog mixing normally doesn't win out here, just get nominated to show that they're "appreciative". David Fincher seems to be the go to guy for creating great sound movies (his last two films were nominated in this category also), but with no real show-offy sound moments outside of some great rifle echoes, this one may be left in the cold (much like the setting). So that leaves us with our top two contenders. War Horse is the obvious choice here because of the war sequences, which typically win this award. However, there may be an incredible surge of support for Hugo to perform a mini-technical category sweep, so it could win here. Top that off with a fresh win from the Cinema Audio Society and you have your winner in this category.
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner Up: War Horse
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: Now this is the category that awards the cleverness of the sound design of the film. Again, I'll start by kicking Michael Bay off the list (as should most Academy voters when it comes to nominating movies) because most if not all of the sound effects have been utilized by the past two films. Nothing new, no award. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo's sound effects were probably too subtle to be recognized here also, so that may work against it also. Drive had some incredible sound design, but seeing as how this was the movie's only category (why, Academy, why?), it probably won't win here. So, again, it comes down to War Horse versus Hugo. Now, this is where it starts to get tricky because in the past six years, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing have gone to the same movie 4 out of 6 times (Slumdog Millionaire was destined to sweep all of it's awards and you can't compete against a musical for Sound Mixing, so Dreamgirls was gonna win anyway). So, if Hugo wins here, expect it to win for Sound Mixing, but if War Horse wins here, expect that to win Sound Mixing.
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner Up: War Horse
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Film Editing: Now, this is where it starts to get murky. If The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo were nominated for Best Picture, I'd say that it had a strong chance to win here, but since it didn't, it's at the bottom of the list, next to The Descendants. Moneyball's editing was pretty technical, weaving between historical footage of older baseball games and multiple locations within scenes and pulling off the overall dramatic effect, but since it doesn't seem to be getting much buzz for a win here, it will probably have to settle for it's nomination also. So that leaves us with the top competitors for Best Picture: Hugo and The Artist. Now, That Artist had some clever old fashioned editing techniques blended with new styles, but don't count out the Academy's love for three time Oscar winner Thelma Schoonmacher, who, incidentally, won for three Martin Scorsese movies. With this movie, not only did she have the powerful blend of Scorsese's images, but she also wove in and out of old fashioned films and Hugo itself. I'm gonna give the slight edge to Hugo here, but I wouldn't be surprised by a sweep by The Artist. (Harvey Weinstein always has a way of buying out awards.)
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner-Up: The Artist
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Cinematography: This is one category that, for one reason or another, I can't be unhappy if any of them win. The Artist had clever black and white cinematography, but you'd have to go all the way back to Schindler's List for the last black and white film that won cinematography, so that's instantly out. Ditto The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, even though the bleak landscape of Sweden looked amazing and the muted palates were very well done. War Horse had some absolutely beautiful photography work in nearly every frame of the movie. Even the bleak battlefield scenes had some beautiful lighting and camera work to it, but it'll have to probably settle for third. While the amazing camera/color work of Hugo would seem like a likely winner, I'm giving the edge to The Tree of Life. Yes, I know, I hate Terrence Malick and all of his pretentious over-symbolism and dehumanized storytelling, but the camera work is spectacular, more than this movie deserves, actually. Still, I won't have a problem with Emmanuel Lubezki winning his first Cinematography award. He was previously nominated for A Little Princess, Sleepy Hollow, Snow Falling on Cedars, The New World and Children of Men, so I'm completely fine with him winning.
My Prediction: The Tree of Life
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Costume Design: Haven't seen these nominees? Don't worry, neither has anyone else. The Madonna-directed box office disaster W.E. is completely out, as this was a time period covered in last year's The King's Speech (hell, it's pretty much the story of the other side of the family). The other two more elaborate movies (Anonymous & Jane Eyre) may not be as likely to win as they have been the past couple years, as their lack of nominations in other categories could indicate that they aren't as well loved. So that leaves us (again) with the two top Best Picture contenders: The Artist and Hugo. Hugo's Sandy Powell already has three Oscars and that may be enough, so they may go with The Artist here, though black and white films are even less likely to win. I'll give the edge to The Artist here as it's the most liked of the nominees, though I wouldn't rule out Hugo in this category yet.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Anonymous
Best Art Direction: This is always my favorite category because it awards the design of the look of the film's location and setting, which can range from period to fantasy. While Midnight in Paris and War Horse are both Best Picture nominees, their set designs weren't as elaborate as the winners of previous films, so I'm not expecting them to win here. Harry Potter is nominated for the fourth time in this category, but with it in competition with four other Best Picture nominees, the likelihood of it winning is pretty nil. So that leaves us with The Artist and Hugo. While The Artist had great looking 1920s houses, Hugo gave us a magnificent train station and the inner workings inside. So that is your winner, Hugo.
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner-Up: The Artist
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
84th Academy Award Winner Predictions (Best Make-Up)
Best Make-Up: Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
Now this is one that it's simply a two way race for me. Albert Nobbs may have created a couple of interesting looking characters, but the work on them would be too slight to consider. Now, at first, I thought Harry Potter had this one locked up, being the best chance the movie has at winning it's first Oscar and also for the heavy prosthetic work done on the supporting cast members. This is also the first in the series to be nominated for this category, so that could also be indicative of a win.
Then I saw The Iron Lady and realized that they aged Margaret Thatcher. If it's one thing the Academy loves, it's old age make-up, but only if it's pulled off well (Curious Case of Benjamin Button, La Vie en Rose, Frida). And there are a lot of scenes of old Margaret Thatcher, which means a lot of close-ups, so there was no room for the make-up to be unconvincing at any time. And it wasn't, so I left thinking that this could potentially pull off an upset.
Still, I think the Academy's going to let prosthetic work win out over aging work. They tend to like out there creative work and Harry Potter is the one film that has that. So I think it's Harry for the win, but watch out for The Iron Lady, which could pull off an upset.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
Now this is one that it's simply a two way race for me. Albert Nobbs may have created a couple of interesting looking characters, but the work on them would be too slight to consider. Now, at first, I thought Harry Potter had this one locked up, being the best chance the movie has at winning it's first Oscar and also for the heavy prosthetic work done on the supporting cast members. This is also the first in the series to be nominated for this category, so that could also be indicative of a win.
Then I saw The Iron Lady and realized that they aged Margaret Thatcher. If it's one thing the Academy loves, it's old age make-up, but only if it's pulled off well (Curious Case of Benjamin Button, La Vie en Rose, Frida). And there are a lot of scenes of old Margaret Thatcher, which means a lot of close-ups, so there was no room for the make-up to be unconvincing at any time. And it wasn't, so I left thinking that this could potentially pull off an upset.
Still, I think the Academy's going to let prosthetic work win out over aging work. They tend to like out there creative work and Harry Potter is the one film that has that. So I think it's Harry for the win, but watch out for The Iron Lady, which could pull off an upset.
84th Academy Award Winner Predictions (Best Visual Effects)
Okay, I'm just going to come out and say it, this year could potentially be very boring. With The Artist sweeping everything and it being a period film, there's no telling how wide the wins could spread, which sucks because it leaves such amazing films like Hugo and Moneyball in the dust. Also, it makes the technical awards all the more unpredictable because, for example, last year's The King's Speech could have easily taken Best Costume Design and Best Art Direction (which, historically, Best Picture period pieces tend to do) and Slumdog Millionaire took damn near every award it was nominated for, one of it's nominations it lost out to itself (Best Song). With the nostalgic love that seems to be practically beaming all over for this film, how far will the love go? Well, let's take a look at the technical categories to see.
Best Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
- Okay, the giant fighting robots will cancel each other out, leaving us with the real race. This will be the last opportunity to award Harry Potter in the category that it has never won before. In fact, of all eight movies, it was only nominated for visual effect three times, including this one. So it could pull off a career award or it could be ignored the way that the others were.
The pros consider the work in Rise of the Planet of the Apes to be the best, with it's motion capture work and digital hair processing (which is not very easy). So this one could win here, however, it's the movie's only nomination, which never seems to bode well (just ask Hereafter, Poseidon, Superman Returns, I Robot and Star Wars Episode II). Could it pull off a Golden Compass-esque victory? Well, it will have to overcome Harry Potter and Hugo.
Now, while Hugo's effects were not the typical kind of show-off visual effects work that the Academy loves, it does have one thing going for it: Best Picture pedigree. The winners of the last three visual effects awards were all nominated for Best Picture (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Avatar, Inception), so that could really factor in heavily as being the most liked film of the bunch.
So, honestly, I don't know which way the Academy's going to go this year for Visual Effects. I'll give the slight edge to Hugo here, but I think Apes could win out also. Or Harry Potter. I honestly don't know this year. Just as long as Transformers doesn't win. It's bad enough that I have to call it "the Academy Award nominated Transformers: Dark of the Moon". Repulsive.
Best Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
- Okay, the giant fighting robots will cancel each other out, leaving us with the real race. This will be the last opportunity to award Harry Potter in the category that it has never won before. In fact, of all eight movies, it was only nominated for visual effect three times, including this one. So it could pull off a career award or it could be ignored the way that the others were.
The pros consider the work in Rise of the Planet of the Apes to be the best, with it's motion capture work and digital hair processing (which is not very easy). So this one could win here, however, it's the movie's only nomination, which never seems to bode well (just ask Hereafter, Poseidon, Superman Returns, I Robot and Star Wars Episode II). Could it pull off a Golden Compass-esque victory? Well, it will have to overcome Harry Potter and Hugo.
Now, while Hugo's effects were not the typical kind of show-off visual effects work that the Academy loves, it does have one thing going for it: Best Picture pedigree. The winners of the last three visual effects awards were all nominated for Best Picture (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Avatar, Inception), so that could really factor in heavily as being the most liked film of the bunch.
So, honestly, I don't know which way the Academy's going to go this year for Visual Effects. I'll give the slight edge to Hugo here, but I think Apes could win out also. Or Harry Potter. I honestly don't know this year. Just as long as Transformers doesn't win. It's bad enough that I have to call it "the Academy Award nominated Transformers: Dark of the Moon". Repulsive.
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