Best Score: Again, the award is going to come down to the two top competitors: The Artist and Hugo. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is much to subtle to be recognized and the two John Williams scores (The Adventures of Tintin and War Horse) will cancel each other out. Howard Shore has already won twice (for both Fellowship of the Ring and The Return of the King) and the most likely Best Picture winner will win here. If Hugo wins in this category, then things may be shaken up for Best Picture, but since that doesn't seem likely, Ludovic Bource's consistent silent film score (even the part that utilized Bernard Hermann's score from Vertigo) will be the likely winner.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Song: Well, this year, the Academy's music branch's ever-changing rules has left us with only two nominees, so it comes down to which song is utilized the best and which movie the academy likes more. While the bigger hit of the two was Rio, it's not the most loved movie of the two. That would be The Muppets, which also utilizes the song the best. While Rio's song Real in Rio is merely a bookend number, Man or Muppet was strongly utilized at the end of the second act as a very emotional and very tongue in cheek piece. It works on two levels as being both humorous and poignant, something Real in Rio is not. So, the winner is The Muppets.
My Prediction: "Man or Muppet"
Runner-Up: (Do I seriously have to type it in?)
My Personal Vote: "Man or Muppet"
Best Original Screenplay: Starting with the two weakest, Margin Call is out, despite being a cleverly written script with a timely storyline, it's too independent and it only has this one nomination. Inversely, Bridesmaids will also be out as well, being considered too commercial and too...comedic. So that leaves the other three. A Separation will more than likely take the Best Foreign Language Film category, so this nomination is merely recognizing how great the story was. So that leaves the other two: Midnight in Paris and The Artist. So, it will be a battle of the dialog versus the battle of the images. This is definitely going to be a tough one to call as it could be a choice between giving Woody Allen his first Oscar in twenty five years or continuing the sweep for The Artist. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that The Artist is going to win by a slight margin, but don't count out Midnight in Paris.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Midnight in Paris
My Personal Vote: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: This is going to be an interesting category to watch as I'm not counting out four of the five nominees here. The one that I am counting out is The Ides of March as it is the film's only nomination and a very good indication that it's not going to win. While some people could count out Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, I had just learned that one of the writers on this film just recently passed away, so there could be some sympathy votes there. If the Academy decides to stick to their two or one writer-written screenplay awards, then Hugo could win out, but the film isn't so much seen as a triumph of it's screenplay as much as it is a triumph of the director's vision. If Hugo wins here, then look for a stronger showing Oscar night. However, the two nominees that are more likely to win are The Descendants and Moneyball. While Moneyball's script was whip-smart and incredibly well crafted, the love for The Descendants may win out here.
My Prediction: The Descendants
Runner-Up: Moneyball
My Personal Vote: Moneyball
Best Animated Film: This one really is an easy one to call. The obscure foreign nominees, Chico & Rita and A Cat in Paris, will cancel each other out as well the too slight American nominees, Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots. That really leaves the only other nominee: Rango. Had the Academy decided to get with the times and nominate The Adventures of Tintin, then it might have been a race. But they didn't so it isn't.
My Prediction: Rango
Runner-Up: None, really.
My Personal Vote: Rango
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