Best Supporting Actress: If any acting category is pretty much a give-in, it's Best Supporting Actress. Why? Well, let's look at the competition. The person who has the least chance of winning that I can see is Janet McTeer, who was kind of a wild fifth place card for the nominations for Best Supporting Actress (her slot could have been taken by newcomer Shailene Woodley from The Descendants, who probably lost out because it was her first film). Jessica Chastin, who had a very fantastic debut this year, was nominated for a very thankless role in The Help (who's co-star we'll get to later), so if she wins, it'll only be for her year rather than this film. Berenice Bejo could sneak in with a late surge for The Artist, but even her role could still wind up has merely appreciated moreso than being awarded.
Which brings us to our top two contenders. While Melissa McCarthy is coming off a whirlwind year of her Emmy win and a stand out role in the surprise summer hit Bridesmaids. She has a massive amount of support going her way, but the person and movie who has more support going her way is the lead contender: Octavia Spencer. The Help has massive support behind it and Spencer is also getting really big support along with the film. She's also won the Broadcast Film Critics Award, the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild Award, a trifecta that pretty much ensures you'll win the award. So this one goes to Spencer, unless Bejo or McCarthy pull off a surprise upset, but that's not very likely.
My Prediction: Octavia Spencer
Runner-Up: Melissa McCarthy
My Personal Vote: Berenice Bejo
Best Supporting Actor: For the entire season, this award was pretty much a shoe-in for Christopher Plummer until the nominations came out and the name Max von Sydow came up and then speculation began as to which lifetime achievement award would be awarded. Nick Nolte will have to settle for his nomination being his only award as this was Warrior's only nomination. Ditto Jonah Hill who managed to ride the support for Moneyball all the way to a nomination. However, trailers for 21 Jump Street and recent memories of The Sitter will keep Hill from winning. Kenneth Branagh is the person who would probably benefit the most from a split between the top two contenders, but that may not be very likely.
So that comes down to the top two candidates. As I was saying before, this season, it was pretty much assured that Christopher Plummer would win, who, like Octavia Spencer, won the Broadcast Film Critics, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards. That is, until, the original top contender, Max von Sydow, managed to get back into a race that he seemed all but out of and score the only other nomination for surprise Best Picture nominee Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Now, an unexpected win for Sydow seems all the more likely, but Plummer still has the edge right now.
My Prediction: Christopher Plummer
Runner-Up: Max von Sydow
My Personal Vote: Christopher Plummer
Best Actress: Now this is one race that is completely up in the air and all nominees have great reasons to win. For starters, Glenn Close, who earned her first nomination since 1988 and her sixth nomination has yet to win, but her movie doesn't quite have the support as the films of her competition, so she'll have to settle for the fact that she got another nomination in. Rooney Mara pulled off an upset nomination that many thought was going to Tilda Swinton, but with a lack of other top tier nominations for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, her award will simply be being the newcomer in this category.
Then comes our three way race. Michelle Williams was considered a top contender for a while, but the movie didn't take off enough to make her a top contender and the race will probably come down to our two competitors. Will Streep win her first Oscar since 1982 or will Viola Davis get bestowed the love from The Help? In this race, it seems like Davis has this one locked up. While Streep delivered a fantastic performance, the movie wasn't highly embraced enough the way that Julie and Julia was two years ago. Inversely, The Help has a ton of support behind it and a LOT of love for it's cast, including Davis. Also, The Help is the only Best Picture nominee in this group and those typically win over non-Best Picture nominees. And it's Davis for the win, followed by Streep.
My Prediction: Viola Davis
Runner-Up: Meryl Streep
My Personal Vote: Michelle Williams
Best Actor: Now here's where it gets murky. Demian Bichir is just lucky to be here after scoring a surprise nomination from the Screen Actors Guild that carried over here. Gary Oldman got nominated because of the Academy realizing "crap, he's been acting for almost thirty years and we haven't nominated him yet". So his nomination is more of a career nomination than a performance nomination (in a very well loved movie). So that leaves us with our top candidates.
Brad Pitt delivered a very complex and subtle performance in Moneyball, but complex and subtle doesn't get recognized by the Academy. On the other hand, the top contender for the early part of the race was George Clooney, who did have a show-y performance in a very well loved Best Picture nominee. And a couple of months ago, he was pretty much expected to win. Then came the one-two punch of the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy Awards awarding Jean Dujardin Best Actor and now with an expected sweep for The Artist, Dujardin seems the most likely to win. If Clooney pulls this one off, then it would be a miracle at this point.
My Prediction: Jean Dujardin
Runner-Up: George Clooney
My Personal Vote: Brad Pitt
Best Director: This is a very interesting category, but will essentially come down to only front runner. Terrence Malick pulled out the surprise fifth nomination as his very dedicated fanbase helped get him in. However, that fanbase is really small and will have to settle for only a nomination. Alexander Payne was a shoe in for a nomination, but he may also have to settle for a nomination as well, since the movie is more being considered a triumph of it's screenplay. Woody Allen has a lot going for him with his sentimental film Midnight in Paris and, should he win the Oscar, would be his first win in 34 years as Best Director. However, the film isn't making as much waves as other movies and it will take a lot for him to win.
That leaves our top two candidates. Fresh from his win five years ago, Martin Scorsese has directed the movie with the most nominations this year. Typically, that would mean it would be a shoe in for Best Picture, but as he learned with The Aviator, that's not always the case if there's a more well loved film that year. This year, there is with The Artist and with Michael Hazanavicius winning the Broadcast Film Critics Award, the Directors Guild Award and the British Film Academy's award for Best Director, he pretty much has this one locked up. If Hugo is going to pull off an upset, then this would be the category where it would be the most clear.
My Prediction: Michael Hazanivicius
Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese
My Personal Vote: Martin Scorsese
Best Picture: And it all comes down to this award. So, let's go through the films that have the least chance of winning. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is extremely outgunned and incredibly implausible to win as it was a surprise nominee after being all but counted out this season. In any other year about twenty years ago, War Horse would have been a shoe in (no pun intended), but with a lack of any acting, directing or screenplay nominations, it's pretty much lucky that it's even included in with this list. Inversely, while The Tree of Life scored nominations for Director and Cinematography in addition to it's Best Picture status, the Malick fanbase doesn't stretch very far and there are actually more detractors than fans of his work, so it's also lucky it's being included in this list.
Now we come to the middle of the road movies, which are films that are well loved, but don't have much chance of winning in competition with the other top competitors. Midnight in Paris was a welcome return to form for Woody Allen and became his most profitable film. Personally, I was never a fan of Woody Allen, but that may have been in part of me seeing too much of his pretentious 1980s and early 2000s movies, which are a chore to sit through. Paris, however, I really adored. We then come to Moneyball, which is also a really well loved movie and scored all of the right nominations to put it in contention to win. However, in this race, it seems to have had to settle for nomination status across the board and it will probably have to do so here. The Descendants has all of the right nominations also, but such a quiet and understated movie without any real showboating normally stays a nomination. Then comes probably the most profitable and most recognized movie among the nominees: The Help. This was a movie that, for a while, had predictors thinking about Crash's surprise win back in 2005. And for a while, it seemed like it was heading that way. But when the nominations came out, it missed out on some crucial nominations to make it a top contender (Director, Screenplay and anything technical). Also, without large critical support, the movie is pretty much left without support outside of it's nomination.
And that brings us to our two way battle for Best Picture this year. While Hugo earned the most nominations this year, it has one thing going against it: no acting nominations. While that didn't hurt Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire, it doesn't quite have the prestige and sweeping precursor award wins that King and Slumdog had. In actuality, The Artist does. The Artist has pretty much won everything under the sun: Broadcast Film Critics, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild, British Academy Awards. Essentially, everything is lined up for The Artist to win and unless a last minute push for Hugo can come in (which won't happen because the Academy typically hates family movies), your winner is The Artist.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Hugo
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