Okay, so maybe doing them one category at a time was a bit too ambitious, so here I go with the other nominees:
Best Visual Effects: The giant fighting robots will cancel each other out (Real Steel and Transformers 3), so that leaves us with a very interesting three way race. Now, brace yourself fanboys and fangirls, Harry Potter has never won an Oscar. Ever, so this may be the last chance they have to award Harry Potter for anything. However, it's streak for getting nominated for Visual Effects is pretty nil as only three of the eight movies were ever nominated for visual effects and the last two were probably due to the fact that the nominees were increased to five instead of three. So it may not be the best loved among the Visual Effects community. What is the most loved visual effects movie within the community is Rise of the Planet of the Apes, with it's spectacular motion capture work and daunting task of near realism interacting with the real world. However, it is the only nomination for this movie, which doesn't bode well. Within the past thirty years, only three movies have ever taken home Best Visual Effects when that was the only award they were up for (not counting the Special Achievement in Visual Effects awards). So what about the final nominee, Hugo? Well, the effects were impressive, but they weren't landmark the way that movies like Avatar or The Matrix were, but what Hugo does have going for it is Best Picture pedigree. You'd have to go all the way back to 1970 to find the last time a Best Picture nominee lost Best Visual Effects, so Hugo may have that going for it. Still, based on the trend that the most technical of the films usually wins out, I'm giving the edge to Rise of the Planet of the Apes.
My Prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Runner-Up: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
My Personal Choice: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Make-Up: Now this is one that it's simply a two way race for me. Albert Nobbs may have created a couple of interesting looking characters, but the work on them would be too slight to consider. Now, at first, I thought Harry Potter had this one locked up, being the best chance the movie has at winning it's first Oscar and also for the heavy prosthetic work done on the supporting cast members. This is also the first in the series to be nominated for this category, so that could also be indicative of a win. Then I saw The Iron Lady and realized that they aged Margaret Thatcher. If it's one thing the Academy loves, it's old age make-up, but only if it's pulled off well (Curious Case of Benjamin Button, La Vie en Rose, Frida). And there are a lot of scenes of old Margaret Thatcher, which means a lot of close-ups, so there was no room for the make-up to be unconvincing at any time. And it wasn't, so I left thinking that this could potentially pull off an upset. Still, I think the Academy's going to let prosthetic work win out over aging work. They tend to like out there creative work and Harry Potter is the one film that has that. So I think it's Harry for the win, but watch out for The Iron Lady, which could pull off an upset.
My Prediction: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Runner-Up: The Iron Lady
My Personal Choice: The Iron Lady
Best Sound Mixing: Real quick, this has nothing to do with the quality of the sound design, it has to do with how well the dialog/music/effects/ambiance/levels are blended together to create an overall effect for the film. That being said, how does Michael Bay's consistent noise fests keep getting nominated when all I hear is yelling and noise? So, Transformers is out, ditto Moneyball because it's a little too slight of a job. Whipfast dialog mixing normally doesn't win out here, just get nominated to show that they're "appreciative". David Fincher seems to be the go to guy for creating great sound movies (his last two films were nominated in this category also), but with no real show-offy sound moments outside of some great rifle echoes, this one may be left in the cold (much like the setting). So that leaves us with our top two contenders. War Horse is the obvious choice here because of the war sequences, which typically win this award. However, there may be an incredible surge of support for Hugo to perform a mini-technical category sweep, so it could win here. Top that off with a fresh win from the Cinema Audio Society and you have your winner in this category.
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner Up: War Horse
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: Now this is the category that awards the cleverness of the sound design of the film. Again, I'll start by kicking Michael Bay off the list (as should most Academy voters when it comes to nominating movies) because most if not all of the sound effects have been utilized by the past two films. Nothing new, no award. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo's sound effects were probably too subtle to be recognized here also, so that may work against it also. Drive had some incredible sound design, but seeing as how this was the movie's only category (why, Academy, why?), it probably won't win here. So, again, it comes down to War Horse versus Hugo. Now, this is where it starts to get tricky because in the past six years, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing have gone to the same movie 4 out of 6 times (Slumdog Millionaire was destined to sweep all of it's awards and you can't compete against a musical for Sound Mixing, so Dreamgirls was gonna win anyway). So, if Hugo wins here, expect it to win for Sound Mixing, but if War Horse wins here, expect that to win Sound Mixing.
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner Up: War Horse
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Film Editing: Now, this is where it starts to get murky. If The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo were nominated for Best Picture, I'd say that it had a strong chance to win here, but since it didn't, it's at the bottom of the list, next to The Descendants. Moneyball's editing was pretty technical, weaving between historical footage of older baseball games and multiple locations within scenes and pulling off the overall dramatic effect, but since it doesn't seem to be getting much buzz for a win here, it will probably have to settle for it's nomination also. So that leaves us with the top competitors for Best Picture: Hugo and The Artist. Now, That Artist had some clever old fashioned editing techniques blended with new styles, but don't count out the Academy's love for three time Oscar winner Thelma Schoonmacher, who, incidentally, won for three Martin Scorsese movies. With this movie, not only did she have the powerful blend of Scorsese's images, but she also wove in and out of old fashioned films and Hugo itself. I'm gonna give the slight edge to Hugo here, but I wouldn't be surprised by a sweep by The Artist. (Harvey Weinstein always has a way of buying out awards.)
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner-Up: The Artist
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Cinematography: This is one category that, for one reason or another, I can't be unhappy if any of them win. The Artist had clever black and white cinematography, but you'd have to go all the way back to Schindler's List for the last black and white film that won cinematography, so that's instantly out. Ditto The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, even though the bleak landscape of Sweden looked amazing and the muted palates were very well done. War Horse had some absolutely beautiful photography work in nearly every frame of the movie. Even the bleak battlefield scenes had some beautiful lighting and camera work to it, but it'll have to probably settle for third. While the amazing camera/color work of Hugo would seem like a likely winner, I'm giving the edge to The Tree of Life. Yes, I know, I hate Terrence Malick and all of his pretentious over-symbolism and dehumanized storytelling, but the camera work is spectacular, more than this movie deserves, actually. Still, I won't have a problem with Emmanuel Lubezki winning his first Cinematography award. He was previously nominated for A Little Princess, Sleepy Hollow, Snow Falling on Cedars, The New World and Children of Men, so I'm completely fine with him winning.
My Prediction: The Tree of Life
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Hugo
Best Costume Design: Haven't seen these nominees? Don't worry, neither has anyone else. The Madonna-directed box office disaster W.E. is completely out, as this was a time period covered in last year's The King's Speech (hell, it's pretty much the story of the other side of the family). The other two more elaborate movies (Anonymous & Jane Eyre) may not be as likely to win as they have been the past couple years, as their lack of nominations in other categories could indicate that they aren't as well loved. So that leaves us (again) with the two top Best Picture contenders: The Artist and Hugo. Hugo's Sandy Powell already has three Oscars and that may be enough, so they may go with The Artist here, though black and white films are even less likely to win. I'll give the edge to The Artist here as it's the most liked of the nominees, though I wouldn't rule out Hugo in this category yet.
My Prediction: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo
My Personal Vote: Anonymous
Best Art Direction: This is always my favorite category because it awards the design of the look of the film's location and setting, which can range from period to fantasy. While Midnight in Paris and War Horse are both Best Picture nominees, their set designs weren't as elaborate as the winners of previous films, so I'm not expecting them to win here. Harry Potter is nominated for the fourth time in this category, but with it in competition with four other Best Picture nominees, the likelihood of it winning is pretty nil. So that leaves us with The Artist and Hugo. While The Artist had great looking 1920s houses, Hugo gave us a magnificent train station and the inner workings inside. So that is your winner, Hugo.
My Prediction: Hugo
Runner-Up: The Artist
My Personal Vote: Hugo
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