My 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part 3

Actor   - Bradley Cooper; Silver Linings Playbook

            - Daniel Day-Lewis; Lincoln

            - Hugh Jackman; Les Miserables

            - Joaquin Phoenix; The Master

            - Denzel Washington; Flight

This is a situation where it could either be a one person race or a three person race. Denzel has already won two Oscars already and his nomination here is merely recognition of a fantastic performance. Much like the movie itself, Joaquin Phoenix’s performance is one that has people either heralding praises for it or dismissing it altogether. Say it with me now, without any other nominations outside of acting, The Master doesn’t have much of a chance. That brings us to the top contenders. Bradley Cooper’s performance in Silver Linings Playbook proved that he has the acting talent to back up his mainstream appeal. However, lack of any major precursor award leaves one to question if he has the support of his competition. Fresh from a Golden Globe win over Cooper, Hugh Jackman could sneak in here with a chance to award his A-list charisma. However, his performance is a little too showy which what dragged Les Miserables down from the top competition. That leaves only the much talked about and much praised performance by Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. Could he be one of the few actors to win his third Oscar, only five years after he won his second? Well, if he can fend off Cooper and Jackman, then he can count on it.

Actress             - Jessica Chastain; Zero Dark Thirty

                        - Jennifer Lawrence; Silver Linings Playbook

                        - Emmaunelle Riva; Amour

                        - Quwevenzhane Wallis; Beasts of the Southern Wild

                        - Naomi Watts; The Impossible

Don’t let the fact that there are five nominees fool you: this is really a two way race. Watts is the only nomination for The Impossible, so there’s no way that she’ll win. Wallis is way too young, so she’s out. Amour has a lot of support going for it, but a foreign language performance is difficult to win. So who’s left? Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence, our two way race. Chastain breathed tough life into a complex character and Jennifer Lawrence seemed to perfectly embody the tragically funny romantic lead interest. Support for Lawrence and Chastain are at fever pitches right now, but support for Silver Linings Playbook is riding high right now while Zero Dark Thirty is still buckling under its controversy. So Lawrence is easily going to win.

Supporting Actor          - Alan Arkin; Argo

                                    - Robert DeNiro; Silver Linings Playbook

                                    - Philip Seymour Hoffman; The Master

                                    - Tommy Lee Jones; Lincoln

                                    - Christoph Waltz; Django Unchained

Everyone here has won before, so it’s a matter of which performer does the Academy want to award for a second time. DeNiro’s already won twice, so a third win at this stage in his career (especially after a near decade stretch of movies that range from dismissible to downright awful) is probably unlikely. Arkin’s performance as a b-movie producer may resonate with the voters, but he had a few scenes here and there and it may be too slight of a performance to award. As stated before, there is support for the performances in The Master, but not for The Master itself, so Hoffman’s chances may be pretty weak here, despite having won a Broadcast Film Critics Award. Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe, really increasing his chances, but he’ll have to overcome Screen Actors Guild award winner Tommy Lee Jones. Right now, it seems to be a three way race between Hoffman, Waltz & Jones with possibly Arkin sneaking in. I’m giving the edge to Jones because it would justify his 1993 win for The Fugitive to all of the naysayers.

Supporting Actress       - Amy Adams; The Master

                                    - Sally Field; Lincoln

                                    - Anne Hathaway; Les Miserables

                                    - Helen Hunt; The Sessions

                                    - Jacki Weaver; Silver Linings Playbook

For some reason, I just can’t get excited about this category this year. It’s not that the performances aren’t good, it’s just that I don’t have anyone I really get behind. Sally Field and Helen Hunt have already won and Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver should win at some points in their careers but not for what are basically throw away roles. (haven’t seen Les Miserables yet). But, personal feelings aside, here’s how the support breaks down. Weaver came completely out of left field with no other blips on the radar, so her nomination is her award. Amy Adams was considered a runner-up for a while, but support was clearly with the cast of The Master. Not so much the movie as it was shut out in all other categories, so don’t expect a win here. Helen Hunt was considered a front runner for a long time, but when her The Sessions co-star failed to get a nomination, support for the film seemed to be weak at best, so the two with the best chances are Sally Field and Anne Hathaway. Honestly, it’s not a competition. We all know that Sally Field has two Oscars, in case you forgot, they like her, they really like her, but do they like her enough now? Not as much as they like Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables, who nailed the showstopper tune, I Dreamed a Dream, much the way that Jennifer Hudson did with And I’m Telling You I’m Not Going Anywhere, the way that  and the way that Catherine Zeta-Jones nailed…every song she sung in Chicago. Plus, this will be Hathaway’s first award and, well, they like her, they really like her.

Director           - Michael Haneke; Amour

                        - Ang Lee; Life of Pi

                        - David O. Russell; Silver Linings Playbook

                        - Steven Spielberg; Lincoln

                        - Benh Zeitlin; Beasts of the Southern Wild

Ben Affleck could have easily won this, the Academy needs to apologize, blah blah blah, we get it. Everything that needs to be said has already been said about one of the biggest failure to nominate injustices in decades. The only thing we can do now is wonder where that leaves the other nominees? It seems more likely to start crossing out the people who are the least likely to win. That list starts with Benh “illegal use of a silent consonant” Zeitlin, who joined the small but exclusive list of first time directors who got nominated for their first low budget film. Those are the ones the branch loves to nominate…but practically never award. The nomination is his award. Ditto Haneke, who was nominated both on his fanbase within the auteur crowd and those who were profoundly moved by his Amour. But if Ang Lee couldn’t win an Oscar for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, it could be years before a foreign language film wins either Best Director OR Best Picture. Speaking of Mr. Lee, his Life of Pi has the second most amount of nominations from this year, but he has yet to win any major award, so he seems to be destined to remain nominated.

That brings us to the top two: Russell vs. Spielberg. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook has been winning over audiences since it expanded its number of screens and it has the seemingly unstoppable juggernaut of The Weinstein Company behind it. If it were a period film, I’d say this was going to be the movie to upset. However, Russell has yet to shake his reputation of a megalomaniac jerk on his sets, so the Academy won’t be rushing to award him. Especially since industry veteran Spielberg has a nomination for his pet project. Showing that he still has dramatic clout that audiences flock to see, Spielberg will easily win this award. Though I’ll bet the first part of his speech will include something about Ben Affleck.

Picture - Amour

            - Argo

            - Beasts of the Southern Wild

            - Django Unchained

            - Les Miserables

            - Life of Pi

            - Lincoln

            - Silver Linings Playbook

            - Zero Dark Thirty

With nine nominees here, I’ll try to keep this from getting too long winded. Normally, I’d say that movies that failed to get a Best Director nomination had no chance of winning, but there is a HUGE addendum to that, which I will address later. However, that rule will hold true for some of the other nominees. Zero Dark Thirty has too much controversy to overcome, ditto Django Unchained. At some point, Les Miserables was considered the top contender this year and managed to get knocked down to being a nominee with a few strong supporters. While Beasts managed to get a Best Director nomination, its nomination was considered the weakest of the five, meaning its chances of winning the big prize are pretty slim.

Amour has a very passionate group of supporters and it could be seen here, but the Foreign Language Film category was created for the same reason the Animated Film category was created: to make sure they don’t win here. Same will go for Amour. Life of Pi managed to become the film with the second most nominations and has strong support behind it, but visually compelling 3D PG-rated films don’t have a good track record (just look at last year’s Hugo). There has been an all-out studio war between the promoters of Lincoln and the promoters of Silver Linings Playbook. Yes, the Spielberg/Weinstein rivalry goes all the way back to 1998 and the Saving Private Ryan/Shakespeare in Love controversy. So this year, while the Weinstein machine came out in full support for Silver Linings Playbook, Dreamworks has been working to outbid the promotion of Lincoln.

However, Warner Bros has been casually sitting back and letting the two studios battle it out while making their selection, Argo, appear to be the incredibly loved underdog. And it has been working. Despite Affleck not getting nominated for Best Director, it won the main awards from the Broadcast Film Critics, Golden Globes, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild and British Film Academy. There hasn’t been a precursor sweep like that since Slumdog Millionaire and that translated into a gigantic sweep. While the sweep won’t be as huge, it seems like Argo seems poised to take this one, making it the first film to win Best Picture without getting nominated for Best Director since Driving Miss Daisy.

My 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part 2

Meh, no one reads these, but I don't care. They make me happy and if one of my friends surprises me and actually happens to read this, that would make me even happier. But as it stands, I'm fine with just being happy. That being said, on with the predictions!

Cinematography              - Anna Karenina

                                                - Django Unchained

                                                - Life of Pi

                                                - Lincoln

                                                - Skyfall

This is probably the best selection of nominees in the categories. Anna Karenina had some unique use of camera work and colors, but a lack of a Best Picture nomination could hurt its chances. Django Unchained also marked another wonderful job by veteran Robert Richardson, but he’s already won three awards, one of which was for last year’s Hugo. Lincoln’s use of source lighting, color and shadows were fantastic, but it may be too subtle and unless support for Lincoln picks up, it won’t win here. That brings us to the two top contenders: Skyfall and Life of Pi.

I want Skyfall to win. I really want Skyfall to win. Not only because it is the most gorgeously lit movie I saw all year where the color palette just stunned me from beginning to end, but because of who the cinematographer is. Roger Deakins is probably one of the best living DPs in his field, if not the best, and Skyfall marks his tenth nomination with no previous wins. What was he nominated for before? Oh, just The Shawshank Redemption, Fargo, O Brother Where Art Thou, No Country for Old Men, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and True Grit. Think back on those movies and how the shadows, colors and lighting set the mood for them. He deserves to win…and I’m having  to come around to the fact that it probably won’t be here.

Life of Pi has some truly amazing camera work, some stunning color design and a fantastic use of 3D technology, which helped previous winners Avatar and Hugo. I feel that will win out here also…but again, Skyfall. Deakins. Come on, Academy.

Film Editing              - Argo

                                - Life of Pi

                                - Lincoln

                                - Silver Linings Playbook

                                - Zero Dark Thirty

This is kind of a weird category in that you’re never sure if it’s going to award what’s going to win Best Picture that year (Crash or The Departed) or if they will actually award the structure and pacing of the film nominated (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and The Bourne Ultimatum). Well, all of this year’s nominees are Best Picture nominees, so let’s look at how complex their editing jobs were. To start with, Silver Linings Playbook did a great job cutting between the multiple characters in the same scene and a few montages here and there, but that may be too unnoticed and simple of an editing job to win. In fact, that kind of editing hasn’t won since Unforgiven and that had a Best Picture win going for it. So that’s out. Same with Lincoln, unless it gets really strong support, it will be seen as a standard editing job. The other three nominees are more complex editing jobs.

Life of Pi had montages, flashback storytelling and adventure editing, but it’s too smooth and fluid to win, especially considering the other two nominees. Zero Dark Thirty had the shaky camera action editing look that wins quite a few times (Black Hawk Down and The Bourne Ultimatum), but support for Argo has grown immensely, which has the shaky camera action editing as well as an intense ending that intercuts between multiple locations. So Argo is definitely going to win here, especially if it’s going to win Best Picture, which seems very likely at this point.

Costume Design                       - Anna Karenina

                                                - Les Miserables

                                                - Lincoln

                                                - Mirror Mirror

                                                - Snow White and the Huntsman

Off the bat, the two Snow White films will cancel each other out. Colleen Atwood’s work on Snow White and the Huntsman is too reminiscent of her previous work (Lemony Snicket, Sleepy Hollow, etc) and Mirror Mirror hasn’t generated as much support. Lincoln is the first nomination for veteran costume designer Joanna Johnston and while the period showcases some spectacular dress, the movie didn’t have the flashy look that usually wins this category over. The last two definitely had the flashy look, but it will come down whether Les Miserables has enough support to win or will the design of Anna Karenina win out? I’m gonna call Anna Karenina for now because the age of the sweeping costume flick winning every award seems to be over.

Productions Design   - Anna Karenina

                                - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

                                - Les Miserables

                                - Life of Pi

                                - Lincoln

Wow, how to begin looking at this one? Sometimes, a Best Picture sweep will carry over into a win, but like I said before, the age of the sweeping costume flick winning every award seems to be coming to an end. Life of Pi had a couple of well-designed sets, but the film largely takes place on a lifeboat at sea, so that may not have much of a chance. Lincoln has a couple of very good interior designs, but 1860s American sets don’t have a good track record here, so unless Lincoln gains some huge last minute support, then don’t expect it to win here. While the recreation of old sets and the design of the new Middle Earth sets for The Hobbit were lushly detailed, reviews and support for this film weren’t as passionate as they were for The Lord of the Rings movies, so the chances for this film winning here aren’t very strong. Again, we’ll see the design competition come down to Anna Karenina and Les Miserables. While the sets of Les Miserables were vast and intricately recreated, too many close up shots denied the film a chance to showcase the scale. Not such with Anna Karenina, so look that one to win here if it can keep Les Miserables at bay.

And because I missed posting one yesterday, here's another one.

Adapted Screenplay                 - Argo; Chris Terrio

                                                - Beasts of the Southern Wild; Lisa & Benh Zeitlin

                                                - Life of Pi; David Magee

                                                - Lincoln; Tony Kushner

                                                - Silver Linings Playbook; David O. Russell

This year’s nominees are a very solid group. Beasts was a well-loved indie film that carried over into a multiply nominated Best Picture nominee. Adapted from a stage play, Beasts has a good amount of support behind it, but it’s destined to be a well-respected nominated film. Life of Pi took a book that many considered un-adaptable, including the author, and translated it near flawlessly to the big screen. However, well adapted films need to have a stronger writing style behind it to generate larger waves to win, so Pi’s adapting job will be respected by being nominated. That brings us to a strong three way race. Silver Linings Playbook had a fantastic use of dialog and had a story that flowed very well. Lincoln had not only some of the best dialog in a film this year, courtesy of master scribe Tony Kushner, and turn a story about passing an amendment and a climactic voting scene into cinematic gold. However, Argo’s seemingly unending support of previous awards (including a USC Scripter’s award) could translate into a win here, too. I’m gonna say that whatever wins here will probably win Best Picture, so look for Argo to win here, unless Lincoln sneaks in.

Original Screenplay                  - Amour; Michael Haneke

                                                - Django Unchained; Quentin Tarantino

                                                - Flight; John Gaetis

                                                - Moonrise Kingdom; Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola

                                                - Zero Dark Thirty; Mark Boal

Each of these nominees have their own uniqueness to them that justifies their nominees. Moonrise Kingdom told a sweet story about childhood romance with the Wes Anderson style. Unfortunately, it was the film’s only nomination when people were predicting it was going to sneak into Best Picture, so support for it may not be very strong. Flight utilized a unique story structure, starting with the big special effects sequence and using that to open up a character story. But it didn’t make enough waves to carry into other categories outside of a nod for Washington. That leaves us with our Best Picture nominees, which usually win. Zero Dark Thirty was a complex character story that was woven around real events, most of which had to go through special clearance just to get told. It would have a stronger chance if there wasn’t such controversy surrounding it right now. A Golden Globe win for Tarantino showed that it has a strong chance, especially with Tarantino’s unique narrative structure and dialog.  It’s chief competition is Amour, which could win if only to give Haneke an award outside of Foreign Language Film to show the Academy’s support, which is pretty strong at this point. So this one goes to Haneke.

Animated Film          - Brave

                                - Frankenweenie

                                - ParaNorman

                                - The Pirates! Band of Misfits

                                - Wreck-It Ralph

Okay, the stop motion animated films are going to cancel each other out because they don’t have any chances, especially with the other two nominees; Pixar’s hit, Brave and Disney’s foray into computer animation, Wreck-It Ralph. Brave would be the more likely choice as Pixar has won 6 of the eleven awards. Believe it or not, Disney hasn’t won a single award in this category. While it may seem like the sure bet would be Pixar, Wreck-It Ralph has gained a large crowd that have enjoyed the blend of nostalgia and sensibility. So I’m giving Wreck-It Ralph the narrow edge over Brave, earning Disney their first non-Pixar award for Best Animated Film.

Song        - “Before My Time”; Chasing Ice

                - “Everybody Needs a Best Friend”; Ted

                - “Pi’s Lullaby”; Life of Pi

                - “Skyfall”; Skyfall

                - “Suddenly”; Les Miserables

Skyfall, Skyfall, Skyfall. If you think any other song has a chance…well, surprises have happened before, but it doesn’t seem likely. Let’s look at the other nominees to see why they don’t have a chance. Before My Time is from a documentary that didn’t get a very large audience, even by documentary standards, so don’t expect it to win here. Pi’s Lullaby is a soothing and elegant number, but it’s in another language and those don’t have a very good track record in this category. While Ted was a huge surprise hit this year, it isn’t the type of film that the Academy recognizes, technical categories or not, so Seth MacFarlane can at least be able to call himself a nominee. The only song that has a chance is Suddenly but originally written songs from already established musicals don’t typically win, especially one that was so low key amidst a two and a half hour onslaught of non-stop fortissimo songs. That leaves Skyfall: a very popular song that helped contribute to the success of the film performed by an artist that is at the top of her game right now. So, Skyfall seems to be poised to win, but an upset wouldn’t be unlikely.

Score       - Anna Karenina

                - Argo

                - Life of Pi

                - Lincoln

                - Skyfall

With five Oscars under his belt, John Williams will have to compose another landmark score in order to net his sixth, so he’s the least likely to win. Anna Karenina composer Dario Marianelli won five years ago for his score for Atonement, so it might take another Best Picture nomination to become a top competitor again. Skyfall marks Thomas Newman’s tenth nomination for Best Score and it may turn out to be just that, especially since there were no big moments that stood out as a classic score, outside of referencing the theme song and the classic James Bond theme. Argo’s been riding a huge wave of support recently and that could carry over to a win for five time nominee Alexandre Desplat. The only downfall is that the score isn’t very recognizable. That leaves long time composer and first time nominee Michael Dynna’s score for Life of Pi, which had a perfect balance between restrained and memorable. If Life of Pi can keep Argo at bay, it can count on another win here.