My 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part 1

It is that time of year again, everyone! That time when I completely geek out over every movie award that year. That time when watching anything else other than movies nominated this year takes the back burner. That time when I obsess over predicting by taking every bit of my personal taste out to make sure I'm accurate. That time when I try not to take the winners personally, no matter how much they aggravate me (unless the movie's title is Shakespeare in Love). So, for the handful of friends that I have that are interested in reading these, here is the first part of my predictions of this year's Oscars.

Sound Mixing    - Argo

                         - Les Miserables

                         - Life of Pi

                         - Lincoln

                         - Skyfall

Once again, the Academy’s sound branch chose to recognize both subtle uses of sound as well as showy ones, or at least as many Best Picture nominees as they could cram in. That being said, Lincoln probably has the worst chance of this bunch, seeing as how it was comprised mostly of dialog heavy scenes those kinds of sound jobs NEVER win. Argo had a lot of dialog heavy scenes, but they were peppered with a few action scenes. The only way it could win is if Argo was destined to have a Slumdog Millionaire-esque sweep of all categories. Skyfall is the type of film that is usually recognized in this category, but with a lack of a Best Picture nomination, it will take a lot of support to win here. That brings the competition between Life of Pi and Les Miserables. While Life of Pi could win with its blend of fantastic sequences as well as the stunning capsizing scene, Les Miserables’ musical mixing, on-set recording and French Revolution battle scenes, Les Miserables seems destined to win this category.

Sound Editing    - Argo

                         - Django Unchained

                         - Life of Pi

                         - Skyfall

                         - Zero Dark Thirty

This is a category that could go in any direction. While Sound Mixing recognizes the use of mixing the different sound elements, Sound Editing recognizes design and use of sound effects. Usually, sound heavy films fair better here (the last five winners were Hugo, Inception, The Hurt Locker, The Dark Knight and The Bourne Ultimatum), so Argo may have the worst chance of these nominees. Django Unchained had some spectacular period sound design, but the film’s handful of nominations shows that there may not be much of a chance here. Life of Pi could sneak in here if a Hugo-esque technical sweep is in its future, but the other two nominees seem to have a better chance. While Zero Dark Thirty seems like it would be the likely winner, the political backlash against the movie seems to be hurting its chances in a lot of categories. That leaves Skyfall and if it can overcome both Zero Dark Thirty and Life of Pi, it could be the winner here.

Make-Up             - Hitchcock

                            - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

                            - Les Miserables

With only one Best Picture nominee in the running, you’d think that it would be a give-in, seeing as how the Academy loves to give movies multiple wins to Best Picture nominees. However, in the past fifteen years, only four of the winners were Best Picture nominees. Still, Hitchcock’s make-up work has as many detractors as they do supporters, so don’t expect a win from it here. So, will Les Miserables overcome The Hobbit? Well, of those four Best Picture nominees that won Make-Up, two of them were Lord of the Rings movies, so the prosthetic work is something that won’t be overlooked. So, the wigs and beards of the dwarves might have the upper hand here, but don't count out Les Miserables’ mutton chops and aging make-up.

Visual Effects     - The Avengers

                         - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

                         - Life of Pi

                         - Prometheus

                         - Snow White and the Huntsman

Let’s just cancel out the movies that have no chance: Snow White and the Huntsman and Prometheus. Last year’s Visual Effects nominees had an interesting three way race between the technical marvel (Rise of the Planet of the Apes), the box office champ (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2) and the Best Picture nominee (Hugo). The latter won indicating that technical landmarks and box office won’t overcome the 40 year streak of Best Picture nominees winning out. Bad news for The Avengers, which has earned almost as much money as the other four nominees combined. While the effects were heavy and complex, it’s only nomination indicates that there isn’t much support from the Academy. So it comes down to The Hobbit and Life of Pi, two massively complex effects films that made extensive use of their effects and their medium. In the end, I think Pi’s realistic portrayals of the animals and the stunning sea vistas will win out over Hobbit’s middle earth vistas and creature creations.