My 2012 Oscar Predictions - Part 3

Actor   - Bradley Cooper; Silver Linings Playbook

            - Daniel Day-Lewis; Lincoln

            - Hugh Jackman; Les Miserables

            - Joaquin Phoenix; The Master

            - Denzel Washington; Flight

This is a situation where it could either be a one person race or a three person race. Denzel has already won two Oscars already and his nomination here is merely recognition of a fantastic performance. Much like the movie itself, Joaquin Phoenix’s performance is one that has people either heralding praises for it or dismissing it altogether. Say it with me now, without any other nominations outside of acting, The Master doesn’t have much of a chance. That brings us to the top contenders. Bradley Cooper’s performance in Silver Linings Playbook proved that he has the acting talent to back up his mainstream appeal. However, lack of any major precursor award leaves one to question if he has the support of his competition. Fresh from a Golden Globe win over Cooper, Hugh Jackman could sneak in here with a chance to award his A-list charisma. However, his performance is a little too showy which what dragged Les Miserables down from the top competition. That leaves only the much talked about and much praised performance by Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. Could he be one of the few actors to win his third Oscar, only five years after he won his second? Well, if he can fend off Cooper and Jackman, then he can count on it.

Actress             - Jessica Chastain; Zero Dark Thirty

                        - Jennifer Lawrence; Silver Linings Playbook

                        - Emmaunelle Riva; Amour

                        - Quwevenzhane Wallis; Beasts of the Southern Wild

                        - Naomi Watts; The Impossible

Don’t let the fact that there are five nominees fool you: this is really a two way race. Watts is the only nomination for The Impossible, so there’s no way that she’ll win. Wallis is way too young, so she’s out. Amour has a lot of support going for it, but a foreign language performance is difficult to win. So who’s left? Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence, our two way race. Chastain breathed tough life into a complex character and Jennifer Lawrence seemed to perfectly embody the tragically funny romantic lead interest. Support for Lawrence and Chastain are at fever pitches right now, but support for Silver Linings Playbook is riding high right now while Zero Dark Thirty is still buckling under its controversy. So Lawrence is easily going to win.

Supporting Actor          - Alan Arkin; Argo

                                    - Robert DeNiro; Silver Linings Playbook

                                    - Philip Seymour Hoffman; The Master

                                    - Tommy Lee Jones; Lincoln

                                    - Christoph Waltz; Django Unchained

Everyone here has won before, so it’s a matter of which performer does the Academy want to award for a second time. DeNiro’s already won twice, so a third win at this stage in his career (especially after a near decade stretch of movies that range from dismissible to downright awful) is probably unlikely. Arkin’s performance as a b-movie producer may resonate with the voters, but he had a few scenes here and there and it may be too slight of a performance to award. As stated before, there is support for the performances in The Master, but not for The Master itself, so Hoffman’s chances may be pretty weak here, despite having won a Broadcast Film Critics Award. Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe, really increasing his chances, but he’ll have to overcome Screen Actors Guild award winner Tommy Lee Jones. Right now, it seems to be a three way race between Hoffman, Waltz & Jones with possibly Arkin sneaking in. I’m giving the edge to Jones because it would justify his 1993 win for The Fugitive to all of the naysayers.

Supporting Actress       - Amy Adams; The Master

                                    - Sally Field; Lincoln

                                    - Anne Hathaway; Les Miserables

                                    - Helen Hunt; The Sessions

                                    - Jacki Weaver; Silver Linings Playbook

For some reason, I just can’t get excited about this category this year. It’s not that the performances aren’t good, it’s just that I don’t have anyone I really get behind. Sally Field and Helen Hunt have already won and Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver should win at some points in their careers but not for what are basically throw away roles. (haven’t seen Les Miserables yet). But, personal feelings aside, here’s how the support breaks down. Weaver came completely out of left field with no other blips on the radar, so her nomination is her award. Amy Adams was considered a runner-up for a while, but support was clearly with the cast of The Master. Not so much the movie as it was shut out in all other categories, so don’t expect a win here. Helen Hunt was considered a front runner for a long time, but when her The Sessions co-star failed to get a nomination, support for the film seemed to be weak at best, so the two with the best chances are Sally Field and Anne Hathaway. Honestly, it’s not a competition. We all know that Sally Field has two Oscars, in case you forgot, they like her, they really like her, but do they like her enough now? Not as much as they like Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables, who nailed the showstopper tune, I Dreamed a Dream, much the way that Jennifer Hudson did with And I’m Telling You I’m Not Going Anywhere, the way that  and the way that Catherine Zeta-Jones nailed…every song she sung in Chicago. Plus, this will be Hathaway’s first award and, well, they like her, they really like her.

Director           - Michael Haneke; Amour

                        - Ang Lee; Life of Pi

                        - David O. Russell; Silver Linings Playbook

                        - Steven Spielberg; Lincoln

                        - Benh Zeitlin; Beasts of the Southern Wild

Ben Affleck could have easily won this, the Academy needs to apologize, blah blah blah, we get it. Everything that needs to be said has already been said about one of the biggest failure to nominate injustices in decades. The only thing we can do now is wonder where that leaves the other nominees? It seems more likely to start crossing out the people who are the least likely to win. That list starts with Benh “illegal use of a silent consonant” Zeitlin, who joined the small but exclusive list of first time directors who got nominated for their first low budget film. Those are the ones the branch loves to nominate…but practically never award. The nomination is his award. Ditto Haneke, who was nominated both on his fanbase within the auteur crowd and those who were profoundly moved by his Amour. But if Ang Lee couldn’t win an Oscar for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, it could be years before a foreign language film wins either Best Director OR Best Picture. Speaking of Mr. Lee, his Life of Pi has the second most amount of nominations from this year, but he has yet to win any major award, so he seems to be destined to remain nominated.

That brings us to the top two: Russell vs. Spielberg. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook has been winning over audiences since it expanded its number of screens and it has the seemingly unstoppable juggernaut of The Weinstein Company behind it. If it were a period film, I’d say this was going to be the movie to upset. However, Russell has yet to shake his reputation of a megalomaniac jerk on his sets, so the Academy won’t be rushing to award him. Especially since industry veteran Spielberg has a nomination for his pet project. Showing that he still has dramatic clout that audiences flock to see, Spielberg will easily win this award. Though I’ll bet the first part of his speech will include something about Ben Affleck.

Picture - Amour

            - Argo

            - Beasts of the Southern Wild

            - Django Unchained

            - Les Miserables

            - Life of Pi

            - Lincoln

            - Silver Linings Playbook

            - Zero Dark Thirty

With nine nominees here, I’ll try to keep this from getting too long winded. Normally, I’d say that movies that failed to get a Best Director nomination had no chance of winning, but there is a HUGE addendum to that, which I will address later. However, that rule will hold true for some of the other nominees. Zero Dark Thirty has too much controversy to overcome, ditto Django Unchained. At some point, Les Miserables was considered the top contender this year and managed to get knocked down to being a nominee with a few strong supporters. While Beasts managed to get a Best Director nomination, its nomination was considered the weakest of the five, meaning its chances of winning the big prize are pretty slim.

Amour has a very passionate group of supporters and it could be seen here, but the Foreign Language Film category was created for the same reason the Animated Film category was created: to make sure they don’t win here. Same will go for Amour. Life of Pi managed to become the film with the second most nominations and has strong support behind it, but visually compelling 3D PG-rated films don’t have a good track record (just look at last year’s Hugo). There has been an all-out studio war between the promoters of Lincoln and the promoters of Silver Linings Playbook. Yes, the Spielberg/Weinstein rivalry goes all the way back to 1998 and the Saving Private Ryan/Shakespeare in Love controversy. So this year, while the Weinstein machine came out in full support for Silver Linings Playbook, Dreamworks has been working to outbid the promotion of Lincoln.

However, Warner Bros has been casually sitting back and letting the two studios battle it out while making their selection, Argo, appear to be the incredibly loved underdog. And it has been working. Despite Affleck not getting nominated for Best Director, it won the main awards from the Broadcast Film Critics, Golden Globes, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild and British Film Academy. There hasn’t been a precursor sweep like that since Slumdog Millionaire and that translated into a gigantic sweep. While the sweep won’t be as huge, it seems like Argo seems poised to take this one, making it the first film to win Best Picture without getting nominated for Best Director since Driving Miss Daisy.