Best Visual Effects: Okay, let’s just get the sure fire nominees out of the way: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hugo and Rise of the Planet of the Apes are all in. If they don’t get nominated, then it will be one of the biggest shocks among this year’s nominees. Since we already know what the semi-finalists are, then it’s simply a matter of whittling out the other seven semi-finalists. The Marvel films, Captain America and X-Men: First Class, will fail to make the cut (believe it or not, but a comic book movie has to REALLY catch on in the mainstream in order to become a nominee like The Dark Knight, Iron Man or Spider-Man), so that only leaves five others. Real Steel used some impressive motion capture work to create life-like reference material for the robots, but it’s under $100 million will be a hard hurdle to overcome, so it will have to remain a loveable longshot. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol may sneak in if there’s plenty of support for it, but outside of one impressive explosion of the Kremlin and a stunning Dubai sequence, it may be seen as too light (much like a similar finalist, The Bourne Ultimatum). That leaves three others. I’m gonna have to suck it up and admit that Transformers: Dark of the Moon will be called an Oscar nominee, if only because of this category, so there’s your fourth. Now the battle comes down to Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and The Tree of Life. Now Tides was able to gain a couple of Visual Effects Society nominations, indicating that the series is still considered visually impressive by the pros. However, The Tree of Life has been getting a lot of buzz for not using computer graphics and relying on natural effects for its Creation of the Universe sequence (which was a grueling 18 minutes long). So, will it be quantity or quality for the last nominee. Well, my predictions are:
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
- Hugo
- Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
- Rise of the Planet of the Apes
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Best Make-Up: Again, we have the luxury of having finalists here, but unlike visual effects, there are no clear front runners. This won’t be like Pan’s Labyrinth or The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King where there was no doubt who was going to win make-up, but in a day and age where prosthetics have been giving way to digital replacement, make-up has become a bit underutilized. Case in point, the finalists are: Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, The Artist, Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hugo, The Iron Lady. Now, I can tell you for a fact that Anonymous is out because there are no industry veterans that worked on the make-up, plus the film didn’t make that big of waves to be remembered. While Albert Nobbs had an industry veteran (Matthew W. Mungle), the movie had primarily one make-up job to worry about: turning Glenn Close into a woman disguising herself as a man, slight work, but nothing revelatory. The same could be said for The Iron Lady, however, the transformation of Meryl Streep to Margaret Thatcher was a bit more impressive, so that may be a possibility. As for the Best Picture contenders (The Artist and Hugo), there was a lot of period make-up and a lot of wig work, but I didn’t see the type of prosthetic work that the Academy typically likes to award. Which brings us to the last two: Harry Potter I think is going to make it in (for the first time in this category), maybe even win (a first win for the entire series). But the big question everyone was asking was what the hell is Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life? Well, after looking it up, the movie is about the true story of a French singer who grew up in Nazi-occupied Paris and the movie follows his life until his death in 1991. So about fifty years of aging make-up, yeah, the make-up branch loves that. That being said, my predictions are:
Best Make-Up: Again, we have the luxury of having finalists here, but unlike visual effects, there are no clear front runners. This won’t be like Pan’s Labyrinth or The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King where there was no doubt who was going to win make-up, but in a day and age where prosthetics have been giving way to digital replacement, make-up has become a bit underutilized. Case in point, the finalists are: Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, The Artist, Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hugo, The Iron Lady. Now, I can tell you for a fact that Anonymous is out because there are no industry veterans that worked on the make-up, plus the film didn’t make that big of waves to be remembered. While Albert Nobbs had an industry veteran (Matthew W. Mungle), the movie had primarily one make-up job to worry about: turning Glenn Close into a woman disguising herself as a man, slight work, but nothing revelatory. The same could be said for The Iron Lady, however, the transformation of Meryl Streep to Margaret Thatcher was a bit more impressive, so that may be a possibility. As for the Best Picture contenders (The Artist and Hugo), there was a lot of period make-up and a lot of wig work, but I didn’t see the type of prosthetic work that the Academy typically likes to award. Which brings us to the last two: Harry Potter I think is going to make it in (for the first time in this category), maybe even win (a first win for the entire series). But the big question everyone was asking was what the hell is Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life? Well, after looking it up, the movie is about the true story of a French singer who grew up in Nazi-occupied Paris and the movie follows his life until his death in 1991. So about fifty years of aging make-up, yeah, the make-up branch loves that. That being said, my predictions are:
- The Artist
- Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
- Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Best Sound Mixing: We still have two sound categories and I’m glad they keep them separate. One awards the design and originality of the sound effects and how well they establish a mood, create an environment or inhabit a time frame and the other, this one, awards the mixing of all the sound elements together (dialog, effects, music, etc). So, if you’re ever in a movie theater and you can’t hear the lines the characters are saying, but you hear the effects and music clearly, that’s a lazy mixing job. This year is probably the first time you won’t see the top Best Picture candidate, The Artist, up for this award (unless the Academy decides to be INCREDIBLY bias and think a mono-score only movie is worthy), but there are plenty of other Best Picture contenders to make the list, namely Hugo. Scorsese movies, especially period ones, have an incredibly good track record for being nominated for Best Sound and this one with its surround sound landscape of gears grinding all over the theater should be no exception. It’s in, ditto The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which utilized a lot of subtle uses of sound, much like Fincher’s Social Network (which was also nominated last year). It may be a long shot since it failed to get a Cinema Audio Society nomination, but should support for the movie hold, I think it’ll sneak in. Moneyball also got a CAS nomination for Best Sound, but I wonder if it might be considered too subtle for an Oscar nomination. Now for the fun action movies this year, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol may have not gotten a CAS nomination, but then again, neither did Wanted and it got both sound nominations back in 2008. I think with the incredible support that movie’s been getting along with stellar box office, it’s definitely in. Super 8 also got a CAS nomination, it has a really respected team behind it (10 time Oscar nominated team Andy Nelson & Anna Behlmer) and it also blended strong, over the top action sequences with subtle, period sound work. It’s definitely in. Now, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides made the other CAS nomination, so it’s not completely unheard of for it to get nominated in this category, but I wonder if the whole Pirates franchise has run its course with the Academy as a whole, so I’m not calling it to get nominated here. I think War Horse may sneak in here, but it’s very faulty at this point and it could miss out to any of the other aforementioned movies, including the final CAS nominee Hanna or Drive. So, my predictions are:
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Hugo
- Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
- Super 8
- War Horse
Best Sound Effects: Like I said above, this is the category that awards the design and originality of the sound effects and how well they establish a mood, create an environment or inhabit a time frame. Since there aren’t any semi-finalists for this category anymore, it becomes a crap shoot. Most of the Sound Mixing nominees will get nominated here, except for last year, when only two made both lists. This time, I don’t think there’s going to be much of a difference, seeing as how four of these movies required a lot of original work to be done to them. The period work of Hugo, the action sequences of Mission: Impossible, the period war sounds of War Horse and the period sci-fi sounds of Super 8, all stand with incredibly good chances to get nominated. The final slot I think is going to go to either the period fantasy work in Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, the bombastic sci-fi work of Transformers: Dark of the Moon, or the primate revolution work in Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Or it could be a completely out of left field nominee like Hanna, Drive or Fast Five. Well, I’m going to stick with the four carry-overs from Sound Editing and this other one:
- Hugo
- Hugo
- Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
- Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
- Super 8
- War Horse
Best Cinematography: For those of you who wonder why there are so many technical awards, it’s because there’s so many aspects that go into making an incredible movie that deserve to be recognized. Cinematography is definitely one of them. Do you like the way a film looks? Do you like the camera angles? Do you notice how the simplicity of shadows, lighting and color contribute to the movie’s overall success? Where would The Dark Knight be without its wonderful blend of blues and sepias blending handheld cameras and swooping IMAX crane shots?
As for the movies this year, there are incredible arrays of beautiful looking movies. Typically, we can look to the American Society of Cinematographers awards for what will either be 4 or even all 5 choices. This year, they selected The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and The Tree of Life. All five have an excellent chance to get nominated, but there is always at least one movie (or two) that end up with an Oscar nomination without getting an ASC nomination also. The movies that have the best chances are War Horse or J Edgar. Both movies have lost steam over the race as well as failed to gather reviews necessary to keep it running throughout the race, but the camera work may be impressive enough to gain a nomination. The ASC nominees that are certain to carry over into nominations are The Artist, Hugo and The Tree of Life. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo could hold on because of last minute support for the film and the likelihood that it will get nominated for Best Picture. That leaves Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy as the most likely to be shunned come Oscar nominations, but don’t count it out, either, as momentum and support has built up for that movie also. Another movie not to count out is Drive, which might nab Newton Thomas Sigel his first nomination in a stellar career. Still, my predictions are:
As for the movies this year, there are incredible arrays of beautiful looking movies. Typically, we can look to the American Society of Cinematographers awards for what will either be 4 or even all 5 choices. This year, they selected The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and The Tree of Life. All five have an excellent chance to get nominated, but there is always at least one movie (or two) that end up with an Oscar nomination without getting an ASC nomination also. The movies that have the best chances are War Horse or J Edgar. Both movies have lost steam over the race as well as failed to gather reviews necessary to keep it running throughout the race, but the camera work may be impressive enough to gain a nomination. The ASC nominees that are certain to carry over into nominations are The Artist, Hugo and The Tree of Life. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo could hold on because of last minute support for the film and the likelihood that it will get nominated for Best Picture. That leaves Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy as the most likely to be shunned come Oscar nominations, but don’t count it out, either, as momentum and support has built up for that movie also. Another movie not to count out is Drive, which might nab Newton Thomas Sigel his first nomination in a stellar career. Still, my predictions are:
- The Artist
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Hugo
- The Tree of Life
- War Horse
Best Film Editing: After being the sole editor for my last movie, I can tell you this is one category that you may not notice often when watching a movie, but is truly an invisible art and definitely worthy of being broadcast. I keep reiterating these points because people complain about the show running long and cutting the technical awards. I disagree. In fact, I enjoy the technical categories so much more than the main awards themselves sometimes.
With that in mind, I think we’re going to see at least four best picture nominees getting film editing nominations (five if War Horse sneaks in) because…that’s typically how it goes. The movies with the best chances of winning usually get nominated here. So, you can bet on The Artist and Hugo getting in. Last year’s editing winners, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, will get in with their slick work for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. That just leaves two more slots open. Another Best Picture nominee will usually fit in here and I think Moneyball’s incredible editing between locations, games, old game footage and dialog scenes will help it to get in. As for the final slot, I’m thinking Michael Kahn’s first transition into editing digitally will get welcomed in, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t get nominated. The other movies that could win out could be another Best Picture nominee (The Descendants or The Help) or a wonderfully crafted action film (Drive). Either way, my predictions are:
With that in mind, I think we’re going to see at least four best picture nominees getting film editing nominations (five if War Horse sneaks in) because…that’s typically how it goes. The movies with the best chances of winning usually get nominated here. So, you can bet on The Artist and Hugo getting in. Last year’s editing winners, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, will get in with their slick work for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. That just leaves two more slots open. Another Best Picture nominee will usually fit in here and I think Moneyball’s incredible editing between locations, games, old game footage and dialog scenes will help it to get in. As for the final slot, I’m thinking Michael Kahn’s first transition into editing digitally will get welcomed in, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t get nominated. The other movies that could win out could be another Best Picture nominee (The Descendants or The Help) or a wonderfully crafted action film (Drive). Either way, my predictions are:
- The Artist
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Hugo
- Moneyball
- War Horse
Best Costume Design: This is one of the most difficult categories to predict because you’re never sure which way the branch is going to swing (and what they’ve seen). It can be as subtle as I Am Love or Milk or it can be from such obscure origins as The Imagination of Dr. Parnassus or Curse of the Golden Flower. So no matter what, predictions are typically difficult, but I’ll still try. Why? Because it’s fun.
So, there’s usually one Best Picture nominee in (if there’s a period costume drama in the race), and those nominees will be The Artist, The Help and Hugo, all three of which received nominations from the Costume Designer’s guild. As for the obscure movies, well, there’s the extravagance of the Shakespearian drama Anonymous, the style of the Victorian set Jane Eyre, the glamour of the 1950s in My Week with Marilyn, The pre-WWII look of W.E. or the complex designs of Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. I don’t think people are rushing to award Madonna’s critically ravaged directorial debut in W.E. or will even remember Sherlock Holmes come Oscar night. So, that makes my predictions:
- Anonymous
- The Artist
- The Help
- Hugo
- Jane Eyre
Best Art Direction: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: this is my favorite Oscar category because I LOVE a movie with stylish set design (Dark City, Blade Runner, the Star Wars trilogy, The Lord of the Rings trilogy, I could go on forever). Having said that, there was only one movie this year that really took my breath away with its set design and that was Hugo. Thankfully, all of the precursors so far have thought so and it’s the most likely to get nominated, possibly even win. As for the others, I’m thinking the sweep of The Artist will carry over here as well, maybe even upset Hugo. The final Harry Potter will have another chance to get nominated and has a great chance, seeing as how Potter has always had the most luck in this category (it has been nominated three times in this category, more than any other category). The 1960s class differences in the south portrayed in The Help could be given special recognition as it is likely to get a large amount of nominations. The support for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy could also sneak in here also, as its 1960s British covert underworld could be recognized also. Movies that could also sneak in are Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, War Horse, Anonymous, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, J Edgar or The Tree of Life.
- The Artist
- The Artist
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
- The Help
- Hugo
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I’m running low on time tonight, so I’ll list out my nominees along with potential upsetters:
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
(Potential Upsetters: War Horse, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Best Original Screenplay: The Artist
Bridesmaids
50/50
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
(Potential Upsetters: Win Win, Young Adult)
(Potential Upsetters: Win Win, Young Adult)
Best Animated Film: The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
(Potential Upsetters: Cars 2, A Cat in Paris, Rio, Gnomeo & Juliet)
(Potential Upsetters: Cars 2, A Cat in Paris, Rio, Gnomeo & Juliet)
Best Song: Albert Nobbs; “Lay Your Head Down” (Brian Byrne & Glenn Close)
Gnomeo & Juliet; “Hello Hello” (Bernie Taupin & Elton John)
The Help; “The Living Proof” (Mary J. Blige, Thomas Newman & Harvey Mason Jr)
The Muppets; “Life’s a Happy Song” (Bret McKenzie)
The Muppets; “Pictures in My Head” (Jeannie Lurie, Aris Archontis & Chen Neeman)
(Potential Upsetters: “Star Spangled Man”; Captain America, “Man or Muppet”; The Muppets)
(Potential Upsetters: “Star Spangled Man”; Captain America, “Man or Muppet”; The Muppets)
Best Score: The Artist: Ludovic Bource
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
The Help: Thomas Newman
Hugo: Howard Shore
War Horse: John Williams
(Potential Upsetters: The Adventures of Tintin, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
(Potential Upsetters: The Adventures of Tintin, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
Best Picture: The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
(Potential Upsetters: Bridesmaids,War Horse, The Tree of Life)
Best Director: Woody Allen; Midnight in Paris
David Fincher; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michael Hazavinicus; The Artist
Alexander Payne; The Descendants
Martin Scorsese; Hugo
(Potential Upsetters: Tate Taylor; The Help, Bennett Miller; Moneyball, Steven Spielberg; War Horse)
(Potential Upsetters: Tate Taylor; The Help, Bennett Miller; Moneyball, Steven Spielberg; War Horse)
Best Actor: George Clooney; The Descendants
Jean Dujardin; The Artist
Michael Fassbender; Shame
Gary Oldman; Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt; Moneyball
(Potential Upsetters: Ryan Gosling; Drive, Leonardo DiCaprio; J Edgar, Michael Shannon; Take Shelter)
(Potential Upsetters: Ryan Gosling; Drive, Leonardo DiCaprio; J Edgar, Michael Shannon; Take Shelter)
Best Actress: Glenn Close; Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis; The Help
Rooney Mara; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep; The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams; My Week with Marilyn
(Potential Upsetters: Tilda Swinton; We Need to Talk About Kevin, Elizabeth Olsen; Martha Marcy Mae Marlene, Charlize Theron; Young Adult)
(Potential Upsetters: Tilda Swinton; We Need to Talk About Kevin, Elizabeth Olsen; Martha Marcy Mae Marlene, Charlize Theron; Young Adult)
Best Supporting Actor: Kenneth Branagh; My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks; Drive
Jonah Hill; Moneyball
Ben Kingsley; Hugo
Christopher Plummer; Beginners
(Potential Upsetters: Max von Sydow; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Nick Nolte; Warrior, Patton Oswalt; Young Adult, John Hawkes; Martha Marcy Mae Marlene)
Best Supporting Actress: Berenice Bejo; The Artist
Jessica Chastin; The Help
Melissa McCarthy; Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer; The Help
Shailene Woodley; The Descendants
(Potential Upsetters: Janet McTeer; Albert Nobbs, Carey Mulligan; Shame, Vanessa Redgrave; Coriolanus)
(Potential Upsetters: Janet McTeer; Albert Nobbs, Carey Mulligan; Shame, Vanessa Redgrave; Coriolanus)
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