Ten Visual Effects Finalists

Well, the Academy's visual effects branch has narrowed their list of nominees from fifteen to ten. Their fifteen semi-finalsits were:

Captain America: The First Avenger
Cowboys and Aliens
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Hugo
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Sucker Punch
Super 8
Thor
The Tree of Life
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
X-Men: First Class

And the five movies that got left out of the ten finalist list were:

Cowboys and Aliens
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Sucker Punch
Super 8
Thor

Okay, I can understand Cowboys and Aliens, Sucker Punch, Sherlock Holmes and Thor getting left in the cold, but I was holding out for a nomination for Super 8, if only because of that spectacular train crash sequence and the great effects for the space ship. There were fewer visual effects shots, but the ones that were there were simply amazing. So much more impressive than the same old crap we keep seeing in Transformers or Pirates of the Caribbean (there really needs to be some kind of sequel rule the same way the Academy's writing branch demands at least 30% of original contribution). Honestly, I think Best Visual Effects has the chance to shape up to be pretty interesting.

Harry Potter is a lock, maybe even to win, especially since it's the last of the series and it has yet to win any Oscars at this point. That is, if it can hold off the revolutionary effects work in Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Factor in the Best Picture pedigree of Hugo and you have your top three contenders for the Visual Effects award. Now for the other two...

Captain America was a well loved film, but I don't think it has much of a chance here with such a crowded film. Not only that, but comic book movies never fare well with the Oscars.

Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol might sneak in if the box office continues to hold up well over the next couple of weeks, but it may suffer the same fate of Super 8, in that it's effects were too few and far between and unless it can earn at least another $150 million by then, it may have to settle for being a well liked movie.

Pirates of the Caribbean was a series that started out highly entertaining but became more and more bloated as the series went on...and this was no exception. The effects may have been too few and far between, but I wouldn't rule it out, especially since there are now five nominees.

Real Steel is going to be a tough sell. The movie was a hit, but not a humongous hit and the effects are pretty impressive, but are they show-offy enough like the Academy likes to nominate/award? I don't think it will be.

The Tree of Life had an impressive opening sequence (that used NO computer effects whatsoever), but in a near two and a half hour movie and in a category that loves to reward big flashy effects moments, the only way this movie will get in is if it's a strong contender for Best Picture.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon...sigh, this may get nominated...I hope it doesn't, but with five nominees, it has a strong chance, so, yeah...

X-Men: First Class will have the same uphill battle that Captain America will have, but with fewer effects sequences than Captain America, this one is out (sadly).

That being said, I think the nominees are going to be:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Hugo
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (ick)

With Mission: Impossible being the weakest of the five nominees that could lose out to either The Tree of Life or Pirates of the Caribbean.