Okay, so it's been a while since I've posted anything on this subject because...frankly, the awards this past week have just been confusing as heck. In fact, this won't be an analysis, this is going to be a rant.
First off, no one should ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever EVER ask Paul Scheer and Rob Huebel to host ANY award show ever again! That had to have been the worst award show I have ever seen. Not only did it kick off with an incredibly lame joke about motion capture, they actually brought Michael Bay in to play along with the joke. Let me let that sink in again, the Broadcast FILM CRITICS award show featured a clip with MICHAEL BAY in a POSITIVE light!!! This is a group that has gone out of their way to ignore every movie he's ever made, even in the technical categories. The fact that they would want to even feature him makes the credibility of the awards rank up there with the Nickelodeon Kids Choice Awards or the MTV Movie Awards. They could have found any other director that's great with visual effects, Nolan, Abrams, Jackson, Cameron, I could go on forever...that was clue one that the show was going down hill and it just got worse from there. I'm not referring to the winners, just the show itself. Again, no one should ever ask Paul Scheer and Rob Huebel back to host any award show ever.
Now for the awards themselves. Well, it looks like Harvey Weinstein bought another Best Picture award. He did it first with Shakespeare in Love winning over Saving Private Ryan, last year he bought out the award for last year's The King's Speech to win over The Social Network, this year, he's bought the award for The Artist over...I don't know. Honestly, this whole year had no real front runner and one movie that makes older movie lovers nostalgic for the silent film era by being a silent film itself. Now, The Artist is a very cute movie and a very good one. It'll probably make my ten best films of the year list (once I see enough good movies to make a top ten list), but here's my problem with it winning: it will be the death nail between the Oscars and any mainstream movie goer giving a rats ass about Oscars.
The Academy has been trying to appeal to mainstream audiences over the past couple of years and falling on their sword while doing it. They had the opportunity to nominate two of the highest grossing movies of 2008 that also got some of the best reviews of the year (The Dark Knight and Wall-E) and instead decided to go for more traditional and dismissible movies like The Reader and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. They finally expanded their list of nominees to ten to include more mainstream movies...and kept nominating a bunch of studio promoted prestige pictures. Now, their final attempt to make things interesting is that they're going to have an undetermined amount of nominees to make things interesting. I said it before, the only people that are going to notice are the people who enjoy predicting the awards like me and even we find it annoying as hell.
So, how does The Artist factor into this? Well, consider this: 2009's The Hurt Locker was the lowest grossing Best Picture winner of all time and it made $17 million. Still, the subject matter and style was enough to make people interested in seeing it. Currently, The Artist has grossed $9 million and honestly, I can't see it doubling that amount over the next month. So this year's winner is going to probably take the mantle for the lowest grossing Best Picture winner...that nobody is going to care about! Seriously, is anyone going to say:
"Hey, honey, I just finished wiring up our three thousand dollar surround sound system. What do you want to try it out on?"
"Ooo, let's watch The Artist!"
(Movie's music plays in only the TV speaker. All other channels are silent.)
"Well...gee...that was...cute."
This movie is not going to find an audience, I can just say that now. It's not going to catch on with the mainstream and for the Academy to say that they want to appeal to mainstream audiences, they are picking the WRONG movie to get behind. Now, I don't expect them to give the award to my best film of this year (Hugo) because it was such a box office disaster (seriously, families, you'll take your kids to see Chipwrecked but not Hugo, then complain that they're not paying enough attention in school? It has to start somewhere, people!), but a movie like Moneyball, which was a pretty big hit and could generate a really good rental base could really be a great alternative.
But The Artist is just not going to catch on and I think, it will actually repel audiences not just from the movie, but from the Oscars also. Now, like I said, it's a really good movie, but at some point, we have to stop letting the oldest generation choose what is or isn't the best in movies. Last year was a clear-cut example of old versus new with the old being represented by The King's Speech, a real life costume drama about a person who overcomes a personal handicap, and the new being represented by The Social Network, a movie about the dangers of a generation becoming dehumanized. Look what won. While I mainly blame Harvey Weinstein and his lobbyist-esque tactics of buying awards, it clearly showed that in the Academy, the old outweighs the new.
If they ever want to appeal to a mainstream audience, they're going to have to do more than just half-ass a "youth targeted show", they're going to need movies that have a large fanbase behind them. They started out well with Avatar and Inception, but they decided to ignore Harry Potter this year. If they want the ratings, nominate something like Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, which, while it wasn't a classic, has been a consistently entertaining series of movies (something I can't say for the Transformer franchise). Also, you have the sleeper hit Bridesmaids, which has been getting a lot of good precursor buzz and some really good reviews. Heck, it might be time to recognize a new genre: women's comedies that prove women can be just as funny and raunchy as the men.
So, long story short, if the Academy wants to have their cake and eat it too with this year, their best picture line-up should look like this:
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallow Part 2
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
See, aren't you interested in those nominees? Nine movies that are a perfect blend of mainstream and prestige, something the Academy USED to know how to do in their heyday. But, no, I think it's going to look like this:
The Artist
The Descendents
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
Seen any of them? Okay, maybe a couple of you saw The Help (the few of you that are reading these posts), but for the most part, they don't have any audience appeal to them whatsoever. The Academy is going to keep trying to shove their choices down everyone's throats and they'll either be gems or pretentious art house crap that audiences are going to reject. If the Academy should take anything from The Artist, they should reach the conclusion that the main character did and adapt with the times, not move backwards!
Oh, well, like Sidney Poitier said in Guess Who's Coming to Dinner, "Not until your whole generation has lain down and died will the dead weight of you be off our backs!" It won't be until the old generation of Hollywood dies off that we'll see a recognition of more mainstream films, if studios can ever make those again. Which will bring me to my next post...
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Thursday, January 12, 2012
American Society of Cinematographers nominees
Well, if the field hasn't been muddled enough, then the Cinematography category just made it all the more. The American Society of Cinematographers nominees are:
The Artist; Guilliaume Shiffman
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Jeff Cronenweth
Hugo; Robert Richardson
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Hoyte van Hoytema
The Tree of Life; Emmanuel Lubezki
Pretty much, four out of five of these were expected, but the fifth slot was heavily predicted to be War Horse. With snubs from the Writers Guild and Directors Guild, War Horse's chances are shrinking as each precursor goes by. It'll take serious wins in the Broadcast Film Critics and the Golden Globes to still be in this race.
Inversely, with an Art Directors Guild nomination and a strong showing at the BAFTA's long list, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is gaining a LOT of support. Now, whether or not it'll transfer over to major nominees like acting, screenplay or picture, some technical categories seem assured. There was once a time that what was nominated for Cinematography would also get nominated for Art Direction and I think it has a really strong chance to be nominated for both categories if not one.
So, my predictions for Cinematography this year are:
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
I'm still expecting War Horse to walk away with at least a few nominations with Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy having a strong chance to upset here.
The Artist; Guilliaume Shiffman
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Jeff Cronenweth
Hugo; Robert Richardson
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Hoyte van Hoytema
The Tree of Life; Emmanuel Lubezki
Pretty much, four out of five of these were expected, but the fifth slot was heavily predicted to be War Horse. With snubs from the Writers Guild and Directors Guild, War Horse's chances are shrinking as each precursor goes by. It'll take serious wins in the Broadcast Film Critics and the Golden Globes to still be in this race.
Inversely, with an Art Directors Guild nomination and a strong showing at the BAFTA's long list, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is gaining a LOT of support. Now, whether or not it'll transfer over to major nominees like acting, screenplay or picture, some technical categories seem assured. There was once a time that what was nominated for Cinematography would also get nominated for Art Direction and I think it has a really strong chance to be nominated for both categories if not one.
So, my predictions for Cinematography this year are:
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
I'm still expecting War Horse to walk away with at least a few nominations with Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy having a strong chance to upset here.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Best Make-Up Finalists
As the year goes on, the predictions get weirder and weirder. The Academy has announced their seven finalists for Best Make-Up, which are:
Albert Nobbs
Anonymous
The Artist
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
The Iron Lady
Well, my thoughts after seeing these are as follows: Yeah, I had to look up what the hell Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life was, too.
The Artist and Hugo are going to be VERY well loved come Oscar night. Two movies about the glory years of silent film, so if they both get included, it would be two movies that are portraying the same time period.
I guess Anonymous isn't completely out of the race yet. All those beards and wigs must have helped it get remembered.
Harry Potter could sneak in here, but then again, so could The Artist...or Hugo. At this point, I would have gone said the surefire nominees would have been The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II and Hugo. Then I looked up what Gainsbourg was about. The exact summary on imdb reads:
"A glimpse at the life of French singer Serge Gainsbourg, from growing up in 1940s Nazi-occupied Paris through his successful song-writing years in the 1960s to his death in 1991 at the age of 62."
Fifty years of aging? Holocaust? Foreign? Yeah, this is going to be a wtf make-up nominee as they've done the past two years (Il Divo? Barney's Version? The Way Back? Remember those? Of course you don't.). So, which one do I think is going to get left out from my original three choices? Well, I'm gonna go with Hugo getting left off, but it could sneak back in, so my choices are:
The Artist
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
With Hugo being a potential upsetter to The Artist.
Albert Nobbs
Anonymous
The Artist
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
The Iron Lady
Well, my thoughts after seeing these are as follows: Yeah, I had to look up what the hell Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life was, too.
The Artist and Hugo are going to be VERY well loved come Oscar night. Two movies about the glory years of silent film, so if they both get included, it would be two movies that are portraying the same time period.
I guess Anonymous isn't completely out of the race yet. All those beards and wigs must have helped it get remembered.
Harry Potter could sneak in here, but then again, so could The Artist...or Hugo. At this point, I would have gone said the surefire nominees would have been The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II and Hugo. Then I looked up what Gainsbourg was about. The exact summary on imdb reads:
"A glimpse at the life of French singer Serge Gainsbourg, from growing up in 1940s Nazi-occupied Paris through his successful song-writing years in the 1960s to his death in 1991 at the age of 62."
Fifty years of aging? Holocaust? Foreign? Yeah, this is going to be a wtf make-up nominee as they've done the past two years (Il Divo? Barney's Version? The Way Back? Remember those? Of course you don't.). So, which one do I think is going to get left out from my original three choices? Well, I'm gonna go with Hugo getting left off, but it could sneak back in, so my choices are:
The Artist
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
With Hugo being a potential upsetter to The Artist.
Directors Guild of America nominees
Well, if this race wasn't confusing enough, the DGA decides to announce their nominees for Best Director this year:
- Woody Allen; Midnight in Paris
- David Fincher; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Michael Hazavinicus; The Artist
- Alexander Payne; The Descendants
- Martin Scorsese; Hugo
Well, it's now a give in that Hazavinicus, Payne and Scorsese were going to be nominated, but it seems as if Woody Allen was able to able to hold onto that momentum from the Golden Globe nomination he received. If this carries over, it will be the first Best Director nomination he would have since 1994. The way that it's looking, it's more and more likely that he will be the fourth nominee.
David Fincher pulled the "out-of-nowhere" nomination today with a movie that failed to get the big nominees from the Broadcast Film Critics and Golden Globes. However, with back to back guild nominations (PGA & WGA), the movie is getting serious momentum to get nominated for Best Picture now. Whether or not he will carry over to his second Best Director nomination in two years will remain to be seen, but the odds have now increased in his favor.
Among the people who took the biggest hit this year were obviously Steven Spielberg, who was the front-runner for a long time, now has not only failed to be included here, but also failed to get a Best Director nomination from the Golden Globes. Doesn't bode well as he was able to get nominations from both back in 2005 with Munich, which was failing to make waves, then managed to sneak in for five Oscar nominations. He even scored both Golden Globe and DGA nominations for Amistad, a movie that failed to get nominated for Best Picture or Best Director. With War Horse's momentum apparently fading, it's likelihood of Best Picture and Director nominations are starting to fade with it.
Terrence Malick is also another person who took a hit here (YAAAYYYY!!!!!). His Tree of Life failed to make any notice in the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild. Even his Thin Red Line, after failing to factor into those other guilds, managed to get a Directors Guild nomination. Most of his supporters say "he's not a guild type of director", but by this point, the movie's going to need more than critics supporting him (cause the rest of us hate his friggin' guts!!!)
So, the director's guild is good for predicting at least four nominations, sometimes five. So far, this year, I'm predicting:
- Woody Allen; Midnight in Paris
- Michael Hazavinicus; The Artist
- Alexander Payne; The Descendants
- Martin Scorsese; Hugo
- Steven Spielberg; War Horse
Spielberg and Allen I'm thinking are the two that have the slightest chances and either one of them could be bumped off for David Fincher. Come to think of it, I may replace Allen with Fincher, but I'm not sure at this point. Predicting this year's Oscars has just now officially become REALLY difficult...and fun. :)
- Woody Allen; Midnight in Paris
- David Fincher; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Michael Hazavinicus; The Artist
- Alexander Payne; The Descendants
- Martin Scorsese; Hugo
Well, it's now a give in that Hazavinicus, Payne and Scorsese were going to be nominated, but it seems as if Woody Allen was able to able to hold onto that momentum from the Golden Globe nomination he received. If this carries over, it will be the first Best Director nomination he would have since 1994. The way that it's looking, it's more and more likely that he will be the fourth nominee.
David Fincher pulled the "out-of-nowhere" nomination today with a movie that failed to get the big nominees from the Broadcast Film Critics and Golden Globes. However, with back to back guild nominations (PGA & WGA), the movie is getting serious momentum to get nominated for Best Picture now. Whether or not he will carry over to his second Best Director nomination in two years will remain to be seen, but the odds have now increased in his favor.
Among the people who took the biggest hit this year were obviously Steven Spielberg, who was the front-runner for a long time, now has not only failed to be included here, but also failed to get a Best Director nomination from the Golden Globes. Doesn't bode well as he was able to get nominations from both back in 2005 with Munich, which was failing to make waves, then managed to sneak in for five Oscar nominations. He even scored both Golden Globe and DGA nominations for Amistad, a movie that failed to get nominated for Best Picture or Best Director. With War Horse's momentum apparently fading, it's likelihood of Best Picture and Director nominations are starting to fade with it.
Terrence Malick is also another person who took a hit here (YAAAYYYY!!!!!). His Tree of Life failed to make any notice in the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild. Even his Thin Red Line, after failing to factor into those other guilds, managed to get a Directors Guild nomination. Most of his supporters say "he's not a guild type of director", but by this point, the movie's going to need more than critics supporting him (cause the rest of us hate his friggin' guts!!!)
So, the director's guild is good for predicting at least four nominations, sometimes five. So far, this year, I'm predicting:
- Woody Allen; Midnight in Paris
- Michael Hazavinicus; The Artist
- Alexander Payne; The Descendants
- Martin Scorsese; Hugo
- Steven Spielberg; War Horse
Spielberg and Allen I'm thinking are the two that have the slightest chances and either one of them could be bumped off for David Fincher. Come to think of it, I may replace Allen with Fincher, but I'm not sure at this point. Predicting this year's Oscars has just now officially become REALLY difficult...and fun. :)
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Writers Guild of America of Nominations
If one day wasn't enough, how about two? The Writers Guild of America have announced their nominees for Best Adapted and Original Screenplay nominations, which are:
Best Original Screenplay
50/50: Will Reiser
Bridesmaids: Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
Midnight in Paris: Woody Allen
Win Win: Tom McCarthy & Joe Tibioni
Young Adult: Diablo Cody
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants: Alexander Payne, Nate Faxon & Jim Rash
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: Steven Zaillian
The Help: Tate Taylor
Hugo: John Logan
Moneyball: Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian & Stan Chervin
Now, this guild isn't entirely accurate as they only nominate American screenplays that are guild eligible. It does help show which films are in a stronger stature (though last year, they failed to include last year's big Oscar winner The King's Speech because of the writer's ineligibility). That being said, they usually get at the very least three nominees right per category.
With Original Screenplay being a very barren category this year, this could go any way. Now, at least one nominee has to be knocked out for the momentum building The Artist and my money's on Win Win (as Tom McCarthy is a beloved WGA nominee that has yet to earn a single Oscar nomination). Other than that, I think Bridesmaids has been building some pretty good momentum and might earn a couple nods. This one could be a lock, too, so I'd say the safest bets from this lot are 50/50, Bridesmaids and Midnight in Paris with The Artist getting in, leaving Young Adult being a fighting contender, but could potentially lose out to A Separation or Margin Call, depending on how strongly those two are being pushed and embraced.
As for Adapted Screenplay, these are pretty set with The Descendants, Moneyball and The Help now all but assuring their locks for Oscar nominations. That just leaves the last two. While Hugo is being praised for its stunning visual work, could the Academy overlook the screenplay? My guess is going to be no, but my sentimentality for that movie may be taking over, so anything could happen. (Please, Academy, please nominate Hugo for every category. It deserves all of them.) That leaves the weakest contender being The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which is a shame because it was adapted so well for the big screen. Not once did it feel labored or dragging like most loyal novel to film adaptations can feel, but it also failed to live up to financial expectations, so they may drop it in favor of War Horse or The Ides of March.
So, my predictions for the Oscar categories for screenplay are:
Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
50/50
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
This year would be so much easier if the Coen Brothers had a movie out this year.
Best Original Screenplay
50/50: Will Reiser
Bridesmaids: Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
Midnight in Paris: Woody Allen
Win Win: Tom McCarthy & Joe Tibioni
Young Adult: Diablo Cody
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants: Alexander Payne, Nate Faxon & Jim Rash
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: Steven Zaillian
The Help: Tate Taylor
Hugo: John Logan
Moneyball: Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian & Stan Chervin
Now, this guild isn't entirely accurate as they only nominate American screenplays that are guild eligible. It does help show which films are in a stronger stature (though last year, they failed to include last year's big Oscar winner The King's Speech because of the writer's ineligibility). That being said, they usually get at the very least three nominees right per category.
With Original Screenplay being a very barren category this year, this could go any way. Now, at least one nominee has to be knocked out for the momentum building The Artist and my money's on Win Win (as Tom McCarthy is a beloved WGA nominee that has yet to earn a single Oscar nomination). Other than that, I think Bridesmaids has been building some pretty good momentum and might earn a couple nods. This one could be a lock, too, so I'd say the safest bets from this lot are 50/50, Bridesmaids and Midnight in Paris with The Artist getting in, leaving Young Adult being a fighting contender, but could potentially lose out to A Separation or Margin Call, depending on how strongly those two are being pushed and embraced.
As for Adapted Screenplay, these are pretty set with The Descendants, Moneyball and The Help now all but assuring their locks for Oscar nominations. That just leaves the last two. While Hugo is being praised for its stunning visual work, could the Academy overlook the screenplay? My guess is going to be no, but my sentimentality for that movie may be taking over, so anything could happen. (Please, Academy, please nominate Hugo for every category. It deserves all of them.) That leaves the weakest contender being The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which is a shame because it was adapted so well for the big screen. Not once did it feel labored or dragging like most loyal novel to film adaptations can feel, but it also failed to live up to financial expectations, so they may drop it in favor of War Horse or The Ides of March.
So, my predictions for the Oscar categories for screenplay are:
Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
50/50
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
This year would be so much easier if the Coen Brothers had a movie out this year.
Ten Visual Effects Finalists
Well, the Academy's visual effects branch has narrowed their list of nominees from fifteen to ten. Their fifteen semi-finalsits were:
Captain America: The First Avenger
Cowboys and Aliens
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Hugo
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Sucker Punch
Super 8
Thor
The Tree of Life
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
X-Men: First Class
And the five movies that got left out of the ten finalist list were:
Cowboys and Aliens
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Sucker Punch
Super 8
Thor
Okay, I can understand Cowboys and Aliens, Sucker Punch, Sherlock Holmes and Thor getting left in the cold, but I was holding out for a nomination for Super 8, if only because of that spectacular train crash sequence and the great effects for the space ship. There were fewer visual effects shots, but the ones that were there were simply amazing. So much more impressive than the same old crap we keep seeing in Transformers or Pirates of the Caribbean (there really needs to be some kind of sequel rule the same way the Academy's writing branch demands at least 30% of original contribution). Honestly, I think Best Visual Effects has the chance to shape up to be pretty interesting.
Harry Potter is a lock, maybe even to win, especially since it's the last of the series and it has yet to win any Oscars at this point. That is, if it can hold off the revolutionary effects work in Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Factor in the Best Picture pedigree of Hugo and you have your top three contenders for the Visual Effects award. Now for the other two...
Captain America was a well loved film, but I don't think it has much of a chance here with such a crowded film. Not only that, but comic book movies never fare well with the Oscars.
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol might sneak in if the box office continues to hold up well over the next couple of weeks, but it may suffer the same fate of Super 8, in that it's effects were too few and far between and unless it can earn at least another $150 million by then, it may have to settle for being a well liked movie.
Pirates of the Caribbean was a series that started out highly entertaining but became more and more bloated as the series went on...and this was no exception. The effects may have been too few and far between, but I wouldn't rule it out, especially since there are now five nominees.
Real Steel is going to be a tough sell. The movie was a hit, but not a humongous hit and the effects are pretty impressive, but are they show-offy enough like the Academy likes to nominate/award? I don't think it will be.
The Tree of Life had an impressive opening sequence (that used NO computer effects whatsoever), but in a near two and a half hour movie and in a category that loves to reward big flashy effects moments, the only way this movie will get in is if it's a strong contender for Best Picture.
Transformers: Dark of the Moon...sigh, this may get nominated...I hope it doesn't, but with five nominees, it has a strong chance, so, yeah...
X-Men: First Class will have the same uphill battle that Captain America will have, but with fewer effects sequences than Captain America, this one is out (sadly).
That being said, I think the nominees are going to be:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Hugo
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (ick)
With Mission: Impossible being the weakest of the five nominees that could lose out to either The Tree of Life or Pirates of the Caribbean.
Captain America: The First Avenger
Cowboys and Aliens
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Hugo
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Sucker Punch
Super 8
Thor
The Tree of Life
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
X-Men: First Class
And the five movies that got left out of the ten finalist list were:
Cowboys and Aliens
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Sucker Punch
Super 8
Thor
Okay, I can understand Cowboys and Aliens, Sucker Punch, Sherlock Holmes and Thor getting left in the cold, but I was holding out for a nomination for Super 8, if only because of that spectacular train crash sequence and the great effects for the space ship. There were fewer visual effects shots, but the ones that were there were simply amazing. So much more impressive than the same old crap we keep seeing in Transformers or Pirates of the Caribbean (there really needs to be some kind of sequel rule the same way the Academy's writing branch demands at least 30% of original contribution). Honestly, I think Best Visual Effects has the chance to shape up to be pretty interesting.
Harry Potter is a lock, maybe even to win, especially since it's the last of the series and it has yet to win any Oscars at this point. That is, if it can hold off the revolutionary effects work in Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Factor in the Best Picture pedigree of Hugo and you have your top three contenders for the Visual Effects award. Now for the other two...
Captain America was a well loved film, but I don't think it has much of a chance here with such a crowded film. Not only that, but comic book movies never fare well with the Oscars.
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol might sneak in if the box office continues to hold up well over the next couple of weeks, but it may suffer the same fate of Super 8, in that it's effects were too few and far between and unless it can earn at least another $150 million by then, it may have to settle for being a well liked movie.
Pirates of the Caribbean was a series that started out highly entertaining but became more and more bloated as the series went on...and this was no exception. The effects may have been too few and far between, but I wouldn't rule it out, especially since there are now five nominees.
Real Steel is going to be a tough sell. The movie was a hit, but not a humongous hit and the effects are pretty impressive, but are they show-offy enough like the Academy likes to nominate/award? I don't think it will be.
The Tree of Life had an impressive opening sequence (that used NO computer effects whatsoever), but in a near two and a half hour movie and in a category that loves to reward big flashy effects moments, the only way this movie will get in is if it's a strong contender for Best Picture.
Transformers: Dark of the Moon...sigh, this may get nominated...I hope it doesn't, but with five nominees, it has a strong chance, so, yeah...
X-Men: First Class will have the same uphill battle that Captain America will have, but with fewer effects sequences than Captain America, this one is out (sadly).
That being said, I think the nominees are going to be:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Hugo
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (ick)
With Mission: Impossible being the weakest of the five nominees that could lose out to either The Tree of Life or Pirates of the Caribbean.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Producers Guild of America Nominees
Okay, I know this is a little late, but I finally have the time now, so here I go. The Producers Guild has announced their ten choices for Best Picture of the year. And they are:
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
Okay, the ones that were pretty assured were The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Moneyball and War Horse, which have pretty much all solidified their nominations for Best Picture this year. This is where it gets tricky, since the Academy has now announced their new and asinine rule about there can be anywhere between five and ten nominations as their way of "making things exciting". Yeah. The only people that would matter to are movie award nerds like me who actually follow these things and even I think it's a pretty ridiculous attempt to try and "attract more viewers".
Since the Academy has made it their game plan to try and appeal to the masses (to try and combat seriously declining ratings), you know The Help is going to be one of the nominees as it is going to be their token "$100 million+ nominee". That being said, I think that Bridesmaids chances have now drastically increased as a loveable longshot.
As for the others, Midnight in Paris' chances have increased pretty drastically also. It could probably be Woody Allen's first Best Picture nominee since 1986's Hannah and her Sisters, which would be exactly 25 years ago. We all know the Academy loooooves their milestones and that would be a nice round number to brag about, especially for someone they looooove to nominate time and time again (though he hasn't been nominated for Best Screenplay since 1997's Deconstructing Harry).
The Ides of March is making a strong comeback, now earning slots in the National Board of Review's Top 10 list, a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture (director, actor & screenplay) and now a Producer's Guild nod, it's slowly gaining steam again, especially after getting completely shut out of the Broadcast Film Critics Awards and Screen Actors Guild nominations, two categories where it should have cleaned up. I'm not saying it's chances are strong, but they are getting stronger than they were before.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo may be able to sneak in, but with lackluster box office (did they seriously think a movie with two graphic rape scenes would be the hit of the Christmas season?), it's going to be a serious uphill battle.
I'm not ruling out Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life. That's all I really want to say about it, I hate the man, I hate his pretentious movies, I don't want to waste any more time on him, so I'll just say I'm not ruling him out...though I hope he does get ruled out.
Movies whose chances are all but gone now are Drive, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. The first two were nominees from the Broadcast Film Critics that were looking like they had pretty good chances, but Drive's underperforming at the box office and Loud's critical equivalent of meh were pretty much two nails in their coffins. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy was always a grassroots campaign from a devoted fanbase.
I'm sorry, everyone, but I never thought Harry Potter had a chance. The movies were fun and cute, but they were never anything more than well produced children's films. They never had the complexity or the dramatic motivations that we saw in movies like The Lord of the Rings films, which had deeper subtext and morality tales. So, expect a couple of technical nods (sets & effects), but nothing major.
So, for right now, I'm predicting for Best Picture:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
With Bridesmaids, The Tree of Life and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being in the running also.
Stay tuned, I have plenty more things to complain about as the Art Directors guild nominees were released today and the Academy's Visual Effects branch has narrowed their fifteen semi-finalists to ten...with some glaring omissions.
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
Okay, the ones that were pretty assured were The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Moneyball and War Horse, which have pretty much all solidified their nominations for Best Picture this year. This is where it gets tricky, since the Academy has now announced their new and asinine rule about there can be anywhere between five and ten nominations as their way of "making things exciting". Yeah. The only people that would matter to are movie award nerds like me who actually follow these things and even I think it's a pretty ridiculous attempt to try and "attract more viewers".
Since the Academy has made it their game plan to try and appeal to the masses (to try and combat seriously declining ratings), you know The Help is going to be one of the nominees as it is going to be their token "$100 million+ nominee". That being said, I think that Bridesmaids chances have now drastically increased as a loveable longshot.
As for the others, Midnight in Paris' chances have increased pretty drastically also. It could probably be Woody Allen's first Best Picture nominee since 1986's Hannah and her Sisters, which would be exactly 25 years ago. We all know the Academy loooooves their milestones and that would be a nice round number to brag about, especially for someone they looooove to nominate time and time again (though he hasn't been nominated for Best Screenplay since 1997's Deconstructing Harry).
The Ides of March is making a strong comeback, now earning slots in the National Board of Review's Top 10 list, a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture (director, actor & screenplay) and now a Producer's Guild nod, it's slowly gaining steam again, especially after getting completely shut out of the Broadcast Film Critics Awards and Screen Actors Guild nominations, two categories where it should have cleaned up. I'm not saying it's chances are strong, but they are getting stronger than they were before.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo may be able to sneak in, but with lackluster box office (did they seriously think a movie with two graphic rape scenes would be the hit of the Christmas season?), it's going to be a serious uphill battle.
I'm not ruling out Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life. That's all I really want to say about it, I hate the man, I hate his pretentious movies, I don't want to waste any more time on him, so I'll just say I'm not ruling him out...though I hope he does get ruled out.
Movies whose chances are all but gone now are Drive, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. The first two were nominees from the Broadcast Film Critics that were looking like they had pretty good chances, but Drive's underperforming at the box office and Loud's critical equivalent of meh were pretty much two nails in their coffins. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy was always a grassroots campaign from a devoted fanbase.
I'm sorry, everyone, but I never thought Harry Potter had a chance. The movies were fun and cute, but they were never anything more than well produced children's films. They never had the complexity or the dramatic motivations that we saw in movies like The Lord of the Rings films, which had deeper subtext and morality tales. So, expect a couple of technical nods (sets & effects), but nothing major.
So, for right now, I'm predicting for Best Picture:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
With Bridesmaids, The Tree of Life and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being in the running also.
Stay tuned, I have plenty more things to complain about as the Art Directors guild nominees were released today and the Academy's Visual Effects branch has narrowed their fifteen semi-finalists to ten...with some glaring omissions.
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